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. 2021 Jul 1;21(4):10.
doi: 10.1093/jisesa/ieab052.

Risk Assessment for the Establishment of Vespa mandarinia (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the Pacific Northwest, United States

Erik D Norderud  1 , Scott L Powell  1 , Robert K D Peterson  1
Affiliations

Risk Assessment for the Establishment of Vespa mandarinia (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) in the Pacific Northwest, United States

Erik D Norderud et al. J Insect Sci. .

Abstract

The recent introduction of the Asian giant hornet, Vespa mandarinia Smith, in the United States in late 2019 has raised concerns about its establishment in the Pacific Northwest and its potential deleterious effects on honey bees, Apis spp., and their pollination services in the region. Therefore, we conducted a risk assessment of the establishment of V. mandarinia in Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Idaho on a county-by-county basis. Our highly conservative tier-1 qualitative and semiquantitative risk assessment relied on the biological requirements and ecological relationships of V. mandarinia in the environments of the Pacific Northwest. Our risk characterization was based on climate and habitat suitability estimates for V. mandarinia queens to overwinter and colonize nests, density and distribution of apiaries, and locations of major human-mediated introduction pathways that may increase establishment of the hornet in the counties. Our results suggest that 32 counties in the region could be at low risk, 120 at medium risk, and 23 at high risk of establishment. Many of the western counties in the region were estimated to be at the highest risk of establishment mainly because of their suitable climate for queens to overwinter, dense forest biomass for nest colonization, and proximity to major port and freight hubs in the region. By design, our tier-1 risk assessment most likely overestimates the risk of establishment, but considering its negative effects, these counties should be prioritized in ongoing monitoring and eradication efforts of V. mandarinia.

Keywords: Apis mellifera; Asian giant hornet; honey bee; invasive species; risk analysis.

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Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Major freight and cargo ports in the Pacific Northwest. The recent introduction of Vespa mandarinia in North America is thought to have resulted from economic trade activities between the United States and Asia.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Plant hardiness zone (PHZ) map of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. PHZs are based on the average minimum winter temperature across a 30-yr time frame for a region and are used to help growers determine which plants may grow best depending on the zone they inhabit. This risk assessment used PHZs to determine suitable climate where Vespa mandarinia may overwinter. Washington and Oregon PHZs share some of the same PHZs that are present in V. mandarinia’s native ranges. These zones include 6A–9A, which include the majority of Washington and Oregon, indicating suitable climate for V. mandarinia to overwinter in and predate on honey bee populations. Montana and Idaho only share two of the same PHZs that are present in V. mandarinia’s native ranges. These zones are 6A–7B, found in northwestern Montana and much of northern and southwestern Idaho. (Source: USDA Agricultural Research Service 2020).
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
Forest cover in the Pacific Northwest with apiary distribution in Washington, Oregon, and Montana. Due to the Idaho Public Record Law, we were not permitted to obtain or display location of registered apiaries in the state. Vespa mandarinia prefers to colonize nests in ‘greenspaces.’ Considering the density of forest cover, particularly in the western portions of Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Idaho, these regions may serve as suitable habitat for nest establishment. Note the apiary distribution in relation to areas of dense forest cover.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 4.
County-by-county color-coded risk map of Vespa mandarinia establishment in the Pacific Northwest.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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