Potential Impact of Time Trend of Lifestyle Risk Factors on Burden of Major Gastrointestinal Cancers in China

Abstract

Background & aims: China has the largest number of incident liver, esophageal, gastric, and colorectal cancer cases in 2020. Examining the time trend of relevant lifestyle risk factors would help project the trend of these gastrointestinal (GI) cancer incidence in China.

Methods: We estimated the time trend of the lifestyle factors based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey 1991 to 2011. We applied the comparative risk assessment method to estimate the population attributable fraction of GI cancers attributable to each risk factor. We also projected the prevalence of lifestyle factors and the associated burden of GI cancer from 2011 to 2031.

Results: In 2011, 56.5% of colorectal, 59.8% of gastric, 48.5% of esophageal, and 35.2% of liver cancer in China were attributable to the lifestyle risk factors under study. Smoking, sodium intake, low vegetable intake, and low fruit intake have improved over time but remained far from optimal and are expected to be responsible for 170,000, 35,000, 22,000, and 50,000 GI cancer cases in 2031, respectively. High body mass index, red and processed meat consumption, and low physical activity are expected to contribute increasingly more GI cancer, accounting for 142,000, 185,000, 60,000, and 53,000 cases in 2031, respectively. The estimated population attributable fraction for all risk factors in 2031 is 52.1%.

Conclusions: Lifestyle risk factors have had an impact on the risk of GI cancer in China, and the impact is projected to increase. If everyone could adhere to the optimal lifestyle, half of all GI cancer events would be prevented by year 2031.

Keywords: Gastrointestinal Cancer; Lifestyle; Population Attributable Risk.