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. 2021 Oct;83(10):e23320.
doi: 10.1002/ajp.23320. Epub 2021 Aug 16.

Quantitative estimates of glacial refugia for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) since the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP)

Christopher D Barratt  1   2 Jack D Lester  2 Paolo Gratton  2   3 Renske E Onstein  1 Ammie K Kalan  2 Maureen S McCarthy  2 Gaëlle Bocksberger  2 Lauren C White  2 Linda Vigilant  2 Paula Dieguez  2 Barrie Abdulai  4 Thierry Aebischer  5 Anthony Agbor  6 Alfred K Assumang  7 Emma Bailey  2 Mattia Bessone  2 Bartelijntje Buys  8 Joana S Carvalho  9 Rebecca Chancellor  10 Heather Cohen  2 Emmanuel Danquah  7 Tobias Deschner  2 Zacharie N Dongmo  11 Osiris A Doumbé  12 Jef Dupain  13 Chris S Duvall  14 Manasseh Eno-Nku  11 Gilles Etoga  11 Anh Galat-Luong  15 Rosa Garriga  16 Sylvain Gatti  17 Andrea Ghiurghi  18 Annemarie Goedmakers  8 Anne-Céline Granjon  2 Dismas Hakizimana  19 Josephine Head  2 Daniela Hedwig  20 Ilka Herbinger  21 Veerle Hermans  22   23 Sorrel Jones  2 Jessica Junker  1 Parag Kadam  24 Mohamed Kambi  2 Ivonne Kienast  2 Célestin Y Kouakou  25 Kouamé P N Goran  11 Kevin E Langergraber  26   27 Juan Lapuente  2   28 Anne Laudisoit  29   30 Kevin C Lee  2   26 Fiona Maisels  31   32 Nadia Mirghani  33 Deborah Moore  34 Bethan Morgan  32   35   36 David Morgan  37 Emily Neil  2 Sonia Nicholl  2 Louis Nkembi  38 Anne Ntongho  11 Christopher Orbell  39 Lucy Jayne Ormsby  2 Liliana Pacheco  40 Alex K Piel  41 Lilian Pintea  42 Andrew J Plumptre  43 Aaron Rundus  44 Crickette Sanz  45   46 Volker Sommer  41   47 Tenekwetche Sop  1   2 Fiona A Stewart  9   46 Jacqueline Sunderland-Groves  48 Nikki Tagg  23 Angelique Todd  49 Els Ton  8 Joost van Schijndel  8 Hilde VanLeeuwe  31 Elleni Vendras  2 Adam Welsh  2 José F C Wenceslau  8 Erin G Wessling  50 Jacob Willie  23 Roman M Wittig  2   22 Nakashima Yoshihiro  51 Yisa Ginath Yuh  2   52 Kyle Yurkiw  2   53 Christophe Boesch  2 Mimi Arandjelovic  2 Hjalmar Kühl  1   2
Affiliations

Quantitative estimates of glacial refugia for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) since the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP)

Christopher D Barratt et al. Am J Primatol. 2021 Oct.

Abstract

Paleoclimate reconstructions have enhanced our understanding of how past climates have shaped present-day biodiversity. We hypothesize that the geographic extent of Pleistocene forest refugia and suitable habitat fluctuated significantly in time during the late Quaternary for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Using bioclimatic variables representing monthly temperature and precipitation estimates, past human population density data, and an extensive database of georeferenced presence points, we built a model of changing habitat suitability for chimpanzees at fine spatio-temporal scales dating back to the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP). Our models cover a spatial resolution of 0.0467° (approximately 5.19 km2 grid cells) and a temporal resolution of between 1000 and 4000 years. Using our model, we mapped habitat stability over time using three approaches, comparing our modeled stability estimates to existing knowledge of Afrotropical refugia, as well as contemporary patterns of major keystone tropical food resources used by chimpanzees, figs (Moraceae), and palms (Arecacae). Results show habitat stability congruent with known glacial refugia across Africa, suggesting their extents may have been underestimated for chimpanzees, with potentially up to approximately 60,000 km2 of previously unrecognized glacial refugia. The refugia we highlight coincide with higher species richness for figs and palms. Our results provide spatio-temporally explicit insights into the role of refugia across the chimpanzee range, forming the empirical foundation for developing and testing hypotheses about behavioral, ecological, and genetic diversity with additional data. This methodology can be applied to other species and geographic areas when sufficient data are available.

Keywords: Africa; diversification; ensemble; paleoclimate; species distribution modeling.

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References

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