Vaccinations Against COVID-19 May Have Averted Up To 140,000 Deaths In The United States

Abstract

COVID-19 vaccination campaigns continue in the United States, with the expectation that vaccines will slow transmission of the virus, save lives, and enable a return to normal life in due course. However, the extent to which faster vaccine administration has affected COVID-19-related deaths is unknown. We assessed the association between US state-level vaccination rates and COVID-19 deaths during the first five months of vaccine availability. We estimated that by May 9, 2021, the US vaccination campaign was associated with a reduction of 139,393 COVID-19 deaths. The association varied in different states. In New York, for example, vaccinations led to an estimated 11.7 fewer COVID-19 deaths per 10,000, whereas Hawaii observed the smallest reduction, with an estimated 1.1 fewer deaths per 10,000. Overall, our analysis suggests that the early COVID-19 vaccination campaign was associated with reductions in COVID-19 deaths. As of May 9, 2021, reductions in COVID-19 deaths associated with vaccines had translated to value of statistical life benefit ranging between $625 billion and $1.4 trillion.

EXHIBIT 1. Timing of COVID-19 vaccine rollout across US states, 2020–21

SOURCE Authors’ analysis of data from the Bloomberg Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker, December 21, 2020–May 9, 2021. NOTES Data are shown in order of states’ reaching the benchmark of 5 doses per 100 adults. Adults are those ages sixteen and older.

EXHIBIT 2. Estimated cumulative COVID-19 deaths averted through vaccination per 10,000 US adults, by state, 2021

SOURCE Authors’ analysis of state-level vaccine data from the Bloomberg Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker and COVID-19 mortality data from the New York Times Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States database, December 21, 2020–May 9, 2021. NOTES Averted deaths are the difference between predicted values of deaths at prevailing levels of vaccinations and predicted values of deaths if no vaccinations had occurred during the study period. As described in the Methods section, regression models use state fixed effects, week fixed effects, and four-week lags of the vaccination doses per 100 adults (population ages sixteen and older). A similar map showing confirmed cases averted is in appendix exhibit 3 (see note in text).

EXHIBIT 3. Estimated COVID-19 deaths averted through vaccination among US adults, by week, 2021

SOURCE Authors’ analysis of state-level vaccine data from the Bloomberg Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker and COVID-19 mortality data from the New York Times Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States database, December 21, 2020–May 9, 2021. NOTES Averted deaths are the difference between predicted values of deaths at prevailing levels of vaccinations and predicted values of deaths if no vaccinations had occurred during the study period. As described in the Methods section, the models use state fixed effects, week fixed effects, and four-week lags of the vaccination doses per 100 adults (population ages sixteen and older). A similar figure containing analogous results for confirmed cases is in appendix exhibit 4 (see note in text).