Impact of the affected population size assessment on the decision-making after a nuclear event

Abstract

In this study an improvised nuclear device (IND) is simulated using a software called HotSpot. The explosion took place in a theoretical central business district (CBD), for the major issue addressed in this paper is the comparison of two methods used for estimating the size of the potentially affected population. The first method estimates the size by multiplying the local average demographic density by the area of the zone of interest. The second method uses the population density gradient model developed by Colin Clark in 1951. The comparison of the two methods enables authorities to better estimate the allocation of resources. The conservative approach allocates the maximum resources possible. However, the Clark model enables a more realistic approach which allocates minimum resources to the emergency response. This study shows how accurate information can be quintessential for authorities to maximize the efficiency of their decisions.

Keywords: Decision; Improvised nuclear device; Population density.