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. 2021 Sep;92(5):e883-e899.
doi: 10.1111/cdev.13658. Epub 2021 Aug 25.

Global estimates of the implications of COVID-19-related preprimary school closures for children's instructional access, development, learning, and economic wellbeing

Dana C McCoy  1 , Jorge Cuartas  1 , Jere Behrman  2 , Claudia Cappa  3 , Jody Heymann  4 , Florencia López Bóo  5 , Chunling Lu  6 , Abbie Raikes  7 , Linda Richter  8 , Alan Stein  9   10 , Günther Fink  11
Affiliations

Global estimates of the implications of COVID-19-related preprimary school closures for children's instructional access, development, learning, and economic wellbeing

Dana C McCoy et al. Child Dev. 2021 Sep.

Abstract

Observational data collected prior to the pandemic (between 2004 and 2019) were used to simulate the potential consequences of early childhood care and education (ECCE) service closures on the estimated 167 million preprimary-age children in 196 countries who lost ECCE access between March 2020 and February 2021. COVID-19-related ECCE disruptions were estimated to result in 19.01 billion person-days of ECCE instruction lost, 10.75 million additional children falling "off track" in their early development, 14.18 million grades of learning lost by adolescence, and a present discounted value of USD 308.02 billion of earnings lost in adulthood. Further burdens associated with ongoing closures were also forecasted. Projected developmental and learning losses were concentrated in low- and lower middle-income countries, likely exacerbating long-standing global inequities.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Estimated percentage of days of ECCE instruction lost due to COVID‐19‐related ECCE closures between March, 2020 and February, 2021, by country. Note. See Table S3 for country‐level details
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Person‐days of ECCE instruction lost due to COVID‐19‐related closures between March, 2020 and February, 2021, by country (in millions). Note. See Table S4 for country‐level details
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Predicted increase in the number of children off track in their early childhood development due to COVID‐19‐related ECCE closures between March, 2020 and February, 2021, by country (in millions). Note. See Table S4 for country‐level details
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Predicted total number of grades of learning lost by adolescence due to COVID‐19‐related ECCE closures between March, 2020 and February, 2021, by country (in millions). Note. See Table S4 for country‐level details
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Predicted total wage losses attributable to COVID‐19‐related ECCE closures between March, 2020 and February, 2021, by country (in USD million, purchasing power parity). Note. See Table S4 for country‐level details
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References

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