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. 2021 Jan-Dec:12:21501327211041208.
doi: 10.1177/21501327211041208.

GIS-Based Analysis Framework to Identify the Determinants of COVID-19 Incidence and Fatality in Africa

Mahmoud A Hassaan  1 , Rofida G Abdelwahab  1 , Toka A Elbarky  1 , Ramy Mohamed Ghazy  2
Affiliations

GIS-Based Analysis Framework to Identify the Determinants of COVID-19 Incidence and Fatality in Africa

Mahmoud A Hassaan et al. J Prim Care Community Health. 2021 Jan-Dec.

Abstract

Corona virus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an extraordinary threat with significant implications in all aspects of human life; therefore, it represents the most immediate challenge for the countries all over the world. This study, hence, is intended to identify the best GIS-based model that can explore, quantify, and model the determinants of COVID-19 incidence and fatality. For this purpose, geospatial models were developed to estimate COVID-19 incidence and fatality rates in Africa, up to 16th of August 2020 at the national level. The models involved Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis using ArcGIS. Spatial autocorrelation analysis recorded a positive spatial autocorrelation in COVID-19 incidence (Moran index 0.16, P = 0.1) and fatality (Moran index 0.26, P = 0.01) rates within different African countries. GWR model had higher R2 than OLS for prediction of incidence and mortality (58% vs 45% and 55% vs 53%). The main predictors of COVID-19 incidence rate were overcrowding, health expenditure, HIV infections, air pollution, and BCG vaccination (mean β = 3.10, 1.66, 0.01, 3.79, and -66.60 respectively, P < 0.05). The main determinants of COVID-19 fatality were prevalence of bronchial asthma, tobacco use, poverty, aging, and cardiovascular diseases fatality (mean β = 0.00162, 0.00004, -0.00025, -0.00144, and -0.00027 respectively, P < 0.05). Application of the suggested model can assist in guiding intervention strategies, particularly at the local and community level whenever the data on COVID-19 cases and predictors variables are available.

Keywords: Africa; COVID-19 case fatality; COVID-19 incidence; GIS; geographically weighted regression.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Conflicting Interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Hot spot analysis of COVID-19 incidence and fatality rates in Africa: (a) COVID-19 incidence rate and (b) COVID-19 fatality rate.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Spatial distribution of local R2 of COVID-19 incidence and fatality rates: (a) COVID-19 incidence rate and (b) COVID-19 fatality rate.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Spatial distribution of residual: (a) COVID-19 incidence rate and (b) COVID-19 fatality rate.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Observed versus predicted COVID-19 incidence and fatality rates in Africa.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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