EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALIYSIS OF PERTUSSIS MORBIDITY IN UKRAINE

Abstract

Objective: The aim: To improve epidemiological monitoring of pertussis by analyzing the disease morbidity during 1995-2017 in Ukraine, to make a prognosis.

Patients and methods: Materials and methods: Analysis of the pertussis morbidity during 1995-2017 using the data of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. The cyclicity was determined by Fourier spectral analysis. The models of prognosis were constructed using polyharmonic regression and an exponential smoothing algorithm. Cartographic analysis and integrated indicators (multiyear index of the prevalence rate, mean square deviation, mean the multiyear pace of the gain in the prevalence rate) were used to determine the areas of risk. Summarized data were used to calculate the generalized coefficient.

Results: Results: The pertussis morbidity cycle has 5 years intervals in Ukraine. The prognosis is for increasing the pertussis morbidity from 4.91-5.54 to 5.48-7.06 per 100.000 people. The generalized coefficient was significantly higher in western part (83.3%) than in central (50.0%) and eastern (16.6%) parts. The study showed that population reproduction rates, natural population increase, and the proportion of people against vaccination were higher in the western part than in other parts of the country.

Conclusion: Conclusions: The pertussis cyclicity depends on the internal mechanisms of interaction in the ecological system. There is a prognosis of worsening the epidemic situation of pertussis spreading. The risk area is the western part of Ukraine, which is characterized by active demographic processes and a greater number of people who are negative about vaccination.

Keywords: Periodicity; forecasting; morbidity; risk factors; whooping cough.