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. 2021 Sep 7;118(36):e2105709118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2105709118.

Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

Arnstein Aassve  1   2 , Nicolò Cavalli  2   3 , Letizia Mencarini  4   5 , Samuel Plach  4 , Seth Sanders  6
Affiliations

Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

Arnstein Aassve et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8.4%), and Portugal (-6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.

Keywords: COVID-19; baby bust; birth rates; fertility; pandemics.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Changes in CBRs by country. Shown are point estimates and 95% CIs for within-country models. For illustrative purposes, Iceland (β=−0.61) was excluded due to large CIs (−2.23, 1.01).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
CBRs relative to the 2016–2019 average for selected countries. Shown are CBRs as a ratio to the mean for the respective month in 2016–2019. The red vertical line is the pandemic cutoff for births (November 2020). The dashed black line refers to the CBR in the respective month being equal to the mean for the respective month in 2016–2019. Time trends (fitted light blue and red lines) are estimated based on the OLS model: CBRRatiot=βPandemict+γ1Timet+γ2Timet2+γ3Timet3+ϵt.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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