Incidence of Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy and Other Neovascular Sequelae at 5 Years Following Diagnosis of Type 2 Diabetes

Abstract

Objective: To determine the incidence and risk factors for developing proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR), tractional retinal detachment (TRD), and neovascular glaucoma (NVG) at 5 years after the initial diagnosis of type 2 diabetes.

Research design and methods: Insured patients aged ≥18 years with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and 5 years of continuous enrollment were identified from a nationwide commercial claims database containing data from 2007 to 2015. The incidences of PDR, TRD, and NVG were computed at 5 years following the index diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. Associations between these outcomes and demographic, socioeconomic, and medical factors were tested with multivariable logistic regression.

Results: At 5 years following the initial diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, 1.74% (1,249 of 71,817) of patients had developed PDR, 0.25% of patients had developed TRD, and 0.14% of patients had developed NVG. Insulin use (odds ratio [OR] 3.59, 95% CI 3.16-4.08), maximum HbA_1c >9% or >75 mmol/mol (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.54-2.69), renal disease (OR 2.68, 95% CI 2.09-3.42), peripheral circulatory disorders (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.25-2.83), neurological disease (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.24-2.11), and older age (age 65-74 years) at diagnosis (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.28-2.03) were identified as risk factors for development of PDR at 5 years. Young age (age 18-23 years) at diagnosis (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.29-0.74), Medicare insurance (OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.70-0.76), morbid obesity (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59-0.87), and smoking (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.70-1.00) were identified as protective factors.

Conclusions: A subset of patients with type 2 diabetes develop PDR and other neovascular sequelae within the first 5 years following the diagnosis with type 2 diabetes. These patients may benefit from increased efforts for screening and early intervention.

Figure 1

Five-year attrition diagram demonstrates how patients were included and excluded in the 5-year cohort. Patients were included if they had any of the following: one inpatient claim with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, one prescription fill for diabetes medication, or two outpatient claims with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes within 180 days. Only patients with an index diagnosis prior to 1 October 2010 were included to allow for 5 years of follow-up.