Predicting and Preventing Acute Care Re-Utilization by Patients with Diabetes

Abstract

Purpose of review: Acute care re-utilization, i.e., hospital readmission and post-discharge Emergency Department (ED) use, is a significant driver of healthcare costs and a marker for healthcare quality. Diabetes is a major contributor to acute care re-utilization and associated costs. The goals of this paper are to (1) review the epidemiology of readmissions among patients with diabetes, (2) describe models that predict readmission risk, and (3) address various strategies for reducing the risk of acute care re-utilization.

Recent findings: Hospital readmissions and ED visits by diabetes patients are common and costly. Major risk factors for readmission include sociodemographics, comorbidities, insulin use, hospital length of stay (LOS), and history of readmissions, most of which are non-modifiable. Several models for predicting the risk of readmission among diabetes patients have been developed, two of which have reasonable accuracy in external validation. In retrospective studies and mostly small randomized controlled trials (RCTs), interventions such as inpatient diabetes education, inpatient diabetes management services, transition of care support, and outpatient follow-up are generally associated with a reduction in the risk of acute care re-utilization. Data on readmission risk and readmission risk reduction interventions are limited or lacking among patients with diabetes hospitalized for COVID-19. The evidence supporting post-discharge follow-up by telephone is equivocal and also limited. Acute care re-utilization of patients with diabetes presents an important opportunity to improve healthcare quality and reduce costs. Currently available predictive models are useful for identifying higher risk patients but could be improved. Machine learning models, which are becoming more common, have the potential to generate more accurate acute care re-utilization risk predictions. Tools embedded in electronic health record systems are needed to translate readmission risk prediction models into clinical practice. Several risk reduction interventions hold promise but require testing in multi-site RCTs to prove their generalizability, scalability, and effectiveness.

Keywords: Diabetes; Predictive models; Readmission.

Fig. 1

Effect of interventions on the risk of acute care re-utilization within 30 days, 90 days, or 1 year of discharge. For interventions with more than 1 reference, top and bottom of each box represent the maximum and minimum values of relative risk increase (RRI) and relative risk reduction (RRR) of readmission +/− ED visit. For interventions with only 1 reference, crossing the x-axis indicates lack of statistical significance. Multiple colors represent multiple outcome time-frames. IDMS inpatient diabetes management service. ^a Murphy, 2019. ^b Healy & Dungan, 2013. ^c Corl, 2015. ^d Davies, 2001. ^e Rubin, 2019, 2020. ^f Brumm,2016. ^g Magny-Normilus, 2021. ^h Mandel, 2019. ⁱ Bansal, 2018. ^j Wang, 2016. ^k Koproski, 1997. ^l Berger, 2018. ^m Bhalodkar, 2020. ⁿ Wright, 2019. ^o Seggelke, 2014