Preoperative and ICU Scoring Models for Predicting the In-Hospital Mortality of Patients With Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Abstract

Objectives: This study's objective was to compare several preoperative and intensive care unit (ICU) prognostic scoring systems for predicting the in-hospital mortality of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (RAAAs).

Design: Retrospective cohort study.

Setting: Single tertiary university center.

Participants: The study comprised 157 patients.

Interventions: None.

Measurements and main results: A total of 157 patients (82% male) presented with RAAA at Charité University Hospital from January 2011 to December 2020. The mean age was 74 years (standard deviation ten years). In-hospital mortality was 29% (n = 45), of whom nine patients (6%) died en route to the operating room, 13 (8%) on the operating table, and 23 (15%) in the ICU. A total of 135 patients (86%) were admitted to the ICU. All six models demonstrated good discriminating performance between survivors and nonsurvivors. Overall, the area under the curve (AUC) for RAAA preoperative scores was greater than those for ICU scores. The largest AUC was achieved with the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) RAAA risk score (AUC = 0.87 for all patients, AUC = 0.84 for patients admitted to the ICU), followed by Hardman Index (AUC = 0.83 for all patients, AUC = 0.81 for patients admitted to the ICU), and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (AUC = 0.74 for all patients, AUC = 0.83 for patients admitted to the ICU). The largest AUC for ICU scores (only patients admitted to the ICU) was achieved with Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (0.75), followed by Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (0.73), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (0.71).

Conclusions: Preoperative and ICU scores can predict the mortality of patients presenting with RAAA. In addition, the discriminatory ability of preoperative scores between survivors and nonsurvivors was larger than that for ICU scores.

Keywords: APACHE II; SAPS II; SOFA; VSGNE; abdominal aortic aneurysm; aortic rupture.