Risk calculator predicts 30-day mortality after thoracic endovascular aortic repair for intact descending thoracic aortic aneurysms in the Vascular Quality Initiative

Abstract

Objective: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (DTAA) is associated with high perioperative survival, although mortality is a possible outcome. However, no risk score has been developed to predict mortality after TEVAR for intact DTAA to aid in risk discussion and preoperative patient selection. Our objective was to use a multi-institutional database to develop a 30-day mortality risk calculator for TEVAR after DTAA repair.

Methods: The Vascular Quality Initiative database was queried for patients treated with TEVAR for intact DTAA between August 2014 and August 2020. Univariable and multivariable analyses aided in developing a 30-day mortality risk score. Internal validation was done with K-fold cross-validation and calibration curve analysis.

Results: Of 2141 patients included in the analysis, 90 (4.2%) died within 30 days after the procedure. Clinically relevant variables identified to be independently associated with 30-day mortality and therefore used to derive the predictive model included age 75 years or greater (odds ratio [OR], 2.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-3.44; P < .001), coronary artery disease (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.03-2.47; P = .036), American Society of Anesthesiologists class IV/V (OR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.39-4.10; P = .002), urgent vs elective procedure (OR, 3.47; 95% CI, 1.90-6.33; P < .001), emergent vs elective procedure (OR, 5.27; 95% CI, 2.36-11.75; P < .001), prior carotid revascularization (OR, 3.24; 95% CI, 1.64-6.39; P = .001), and proximal landing zone <3 (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.65-3.81; P < .001). The model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75. Internal validation demonstrated a bias-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.66-0.79) and a calibration slope of 1.00 with a corresponding intercept of 0.00.

Conclusions: This study provides a novel clinically relevant risk prediction model to estimate 30-day mortality risk after TEVAR for DTAA. The TEVAR Mortality Risk Calculator provides useful prognostic information to guide patient selection and facilitate preoperative discussions and shared decision making. An easily accessible online version of the TEVAR Mortality Risk Score is available to facilitate ease of use.

Keywords: 30-day mortality; Risk prediction; Thoracic aortic aneurysm; Thoracic endovascular aortic repair.