[Decline in life expectancy in Madrid's districts in 2020: its correlation with social determinants]

Abstract

Objective: Estimating the decrease in life expectancy (LE) of the population of Madrid and its districts and its relationship with socioeconomic variables in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Method: Death records were obtained from the Municipal Register of inhabitants (Municipal Statistics Service). Based on Chiang II method, life expectancy at birth and at 65 years of age (LEB and LE65) were calculated, as well as their 95% confidence intervals both for men and women and their gross, net and minimum falls for each district in 2020 over 2019, their correlation with some socioeconomic variables distribution and the existence of multiple linear regression explicative models.

Results: In 2020, deaths in Madrid increased by 46.1% compared with the previous year, the LEB was 79.31 years in men and 85.25 years in women, meaning a decrease of 3.67 and 2.56 years respectively (4.42% and 2.91%). All districts registered decreases in LE, with the largest decrease in men in Tetuan (4.72 years) and in women in Chamartín (3.91 years). The most affected were the southern districts, especially in men. Immigrant and people over 80 years old rates explained 24% of the drop in LE in men, using linear regression model.

Conclusions: The decrease in LE recorded in Madrid and its districts in 2020 is bigger than in Spain (1.6 years), takes us back to values of 2002 (LE65) and 2008 (LEB), has a sharper fall in the south and is territorially unequally distributed, according to socioeconomic variables and being associated with some of them.

Keywords: COVID-19; Cities; Ciudades; Coronavirus infection; Esperanza de vida; Factores socioeconómicos; Infección por coronavirus; Life expectancy; Socioeconomic factors.