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. 2021 Oct:287:114353.
doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114353. Epub 2021 Sep 8.

Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?

Jonathan Cylus  1 , Lynn Al Tayara  2
Affiliations

Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy: Does health moderate the relationship between population age-structure and economic growth?

Jonathan Cylus et al. Soc Sci Med. 2021 Oct.

Abstract

Research often suggests that population ageing will be detrimental for the economy due to increased labour market exits and lost productivity, however the role of population health and disability at older ages is not well established. We estimate the relationship between the size of the older working age population and economic growth across 180 countries from 1990 to 2017 to explore whether a healthy older working age population, as measured by age-specific Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), can moderate the relationship between an ageing labour force and real per capita GDP growth. Using country and year fixed effects models, we find that although an increase in the 55-69 year old share of the total population is associated with a reduction in real per capita GDP growth, the decline in economic growth is moderated if the population at that age is in good health. To demonstrate the magnitude of effects, we present model predicted real per capita GDP growth for a selection of countries from 2020 through 2100 comparing the 2017 country-specific baseline YLD rate to a simulated 5% improvement in YLDs. Our findings demonstrate that economic slowdowns attributable to population ageing are avoidable through policy interventions supporting healthy and active ageing.

Keywords: Economy; Health; Population ageing.

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Conflict of interest statement

None.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Line of best fit, 55–69 year old population share vs. mean-centred 5-year average real per capita GDP.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Predicted 5-year average real per capita GDP growth and the share of the population at older working-age (55–69), good health vs poor health scenarios. Note: Good health is defined here as 1 standard deviation below the mean of the inverse of YLDs among 55–69 year olds; Poor health is defined as 1 standard deviation above the mean of the inverse of YLDs among 55–69 year olds.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Contour plot of population age share 55-69, inverse of YLDs, and real GDP growth based on Model 5.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Forecasted gains in real per capita GDP growth associated with a 5% improvement in YLDs, selected countries, 2020-2100.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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