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. 2021 Sep 28;118(39):e2101386118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2101386118.

Excess mortality from COVID and non-COVID causes in minority populations

Christopher J Cronin  1 , William N Evans  2
Affiliations

Excess mortality from COVID and non-COVID causes in minority populations

Christopher J Cronin et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

The 2020 US mortality totaled 2.8 million after early March, which is 17.3% higher than age-population-weighted mortality over the same time interval in 2017 to 2019, for a total excess death count of 413,592. We use data on weekly death counts by cause, as well as life tables, to quantify excess mortality and life years lost from both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 causes by race/ethnicity, age, and gender/sex. Excess mortality from non-COVID-19 causes is substantial and much more heavily concentrated among males and minorities, especially Black, non-Hispanic males, than COVID-19 deaths. Thirty-four percent of the excess life years lost for males is from non-COVID-19 causes. While minorities represent 36% of COVID-19 deaths, they represent 70% of non-COVID-19 related excess deaths and 58% of non-COVID-19 excess life years lost. Black, non-Hispanic males represent only 6.9% of the population, but they are responsible for 8.9% of COVID-19 deaths and 28% of 2020 excess deaths from non-COVID-19 causes. For this group, nearly half of the excess life years lost in 2020 are due to non-COVID-19 causes.

Keywords: COVID-19; excess mortality; racial disparities.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Death rates (deaths/100,000) from COVID-19 (A) and excess deaths from non–COVID-19 causes (B) by age, gender/sex, and race/ethnicity through week 46 of 2020. Rates are age standardized within each age, gender/sex, and race/ethnicity group, that is, we weight the NCHS death rate for each 5-y age bin within the larger age interval by the size of the relevant population.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Regression discontinuity design estimates of Ln(COVID-19 deaths/100,000) by age, through the end of 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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