Changes in Life Expectancy of Respiratory Diseases from Attaining Daily PM2.5 Standard in China: A Nationwide Observational Study

Abstract

Although exposure to air pollution increases the risk of premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL), the effects of daily air quality improvement to the life expectancy of respiratory diseases remained unclear. We applied a generalized additive model (GAM) to assess the associations between daily PM_2.5 exposure and YLL from respiratory diseases in 96 Chinese cities during 2013-2016. We further estimated the avoidable YLL, potential gains in life expectancy, and the attributable fraction by assuming daily PM_2.5 concentration decrease to the air quality standards of China and World Health Organization. Regional and national results were generated by random-effects meta-analysis. A total of 861,494 total respiratory diseases and 586,962 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) caused death from 96 Chinese cities were recorded during study period. Each 10 μg/m³ increase of PM_2.5 in 3-day moving average (lag02) was associated with 0.16 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.24) years increment in life expectancy from total respiratory diseases. The highest effect was observed in Southwest region with 0.42 (95% CI: 0.22, 0.62) years increase in life expectancy. By attaining the WHO's Air Quality Guidelines, we estimated that an average of 782.09 (95% CI: 438.29, 1125.89) YLLs caused by total respiratory death in each city could be avoided, which corresponded to 1.15% (95% CI: 0.67%, 1.64%) of the overall YLLs, and 0.12 (95% CI: 0.07, 0.17) years increment in life expectancy. The results of COPD were generally consistent with total respiratory diseases. Our findings indicate that reduction in daily PM_2.5 concentrations might lead to longer life expectancy from respiratory death.

Keywords: China; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; fine particulates; respiratory diseases; years of life lost.

Graphical abstract

Figure 1

Regression Coefficients of Daily Years of Life Lost or Mortality Count due to Respiratory Diseases Associated with PM_2.5 at Different Lag Days during 2013–2016

Figure 2

Locations of the 96 Study Cities in Mainland China The locations of the 96 cities were indicated by small black circle. The seven regions were shown in different colors.