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. 2021 Sep 25;14(1):491.
doi: 10.1186/s13071-021-04945-6.

Modelling bluetongue risk in Kazakhstan

Sarsenbay K Abdrakhmanov  1 , Kanatzhan K Beisembayev  1 , Akmetzhan A Sultanov  2 , Yersyn Y Mukhanbetkaliyev  1 , Ablaikhan S Kadyrov  1 , Altay Y Ussenbayev  1 , Aigerim Y Zhakenova  1 , Paul R Torgerson  3
Affiliations

Modelling bluetongue risk in Kazakhstan

Sarsenbay K Abdrakhmanov et al. Parasit Vectors. .

Abstract

Background: Bluetongue is a serious disease of ruminants caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV). BTV is transmitted by biting midges (Culicoides spp.). Serological evidence from livestock and the presence of at least one competent vector species of Culicoides suggests that transmission of BTV is possible and may have occurred in Kazakhstan.

Methods: We estimated the risk of transmission using a mathematical model of the reproduction number R0 for bluetongue. This model depends on livestock density and climatic factors which affect vector density. Data on climate and livestock numbers from the 2466 local communities were used. This, together with previously published model parameters, was used to estimate R0 for each month of the year. We plotted the results on isopleth maps of Kazakhstan using interpolation to smooth the irregular data. We also mapped the estimated proportion of the population requiring vaccination to prevent outbreaks of bluetongue.

Results: The results suggest that transmission of bluetongue in Kazakhstan is not possible in the winter from October to March. Assuming there are vector-competent species of Culicoides endemic in Kazakhstan, then low levels of risk first appear in the south of Kazakhstan in April before spreading north and intensifying, reaching maximum levels in northern Kazakhstan in July. The risk declined in September and had disappeared by October.

Conclusion: These results should aid in surveillance efforts for the detection and control of bluetongue in Kazakhstan by indicating where and when outbreaks of bluetongue are most likely to occur. The results also indicate where vaccination efforts should be focussed to prevent outbreaks of disease.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Bluetongue; Cattle; Culicoides; Epidemiology; Geographical information systems; Livestock; Mathematical modelling; Risk; Sheep; Transmission Kazakhstan.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Pictorial representation of the parameters that affect R0. Parameters affected by temperature and rainfall are indicated
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
R0 of transmission of bluetongue in Kazakhstan from April to September
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Estimated proportion of livestock requiring vaccination to prevent outbreaks of bluetongue
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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