Trust in scientists in times of pandemic: Panel evidence from 12 countries

Abstract

This article analyzes the specific and critical role of trust in scientists on both the support for and compliance with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We exploit large-scale, longitudinal, and representative surveys for 12 countries over the period from March to December 2020, and we complement the analysis with experimental data. We find that trust in scientists is the key driving force behind individual support for and compliance with NPIs and for favorable attitudes toward vaccination. The effect of trust in government is more ambiguous and tends to diminish support for and compliance with NPIs in countries where the recommendations from scientists and the government were not aligned. Trust in others also has seemingly paradoxical effects: in countries where social trust is high, the support for NPIs is low due to higher expectations that others will voluntary social distance. Our individual-level longitudinal data also allows us to evaluate the effects of within-person changes in trust over the pandemic: we show that trust levels and, in particular, trust in scientists have changed dramatically for individuals and within countries, with important subsequent effects on compliant behavior and support for NPIs. Such findings point out the challenging but critical need to maintain trust in scientists during a lasting pandemic that strains citizens and governments.

Keywords: COVID-19; trust in governments; trust in others; trust in scientists.

Fig. 1.

Individual trust levels and support for NPIs. A–C show the regression coefficients of trust on support for NPIs from Specification A within each country and across all countries (all). D shows the regression coefficients of trust and health risk on trusting others to respect voluntary social distancing rules from Specification A using the French panel survey.

Fig. 2.

Trust and compliance with restrictions. A–C show the regression coefficients of trust on compliance from Specification A within each country and across all countries (all).

Fig. 3.

Evolution of individual compliant behavior as a function of trust.

Fig. 4.

Experimental evidence on compliance with recommendations. Willingness to wear a mask at home when the recommendation comes from the government (prime minister or president) or from scientists (individual scientists–Nobel laureates in medicine–or a scientific institution—the WHO).

Fig. 5.

Cross-country comparison of willingness to be vaccinated and support for NPIs. The number associated with the country label corresponds to the wave number.