Is this as good as it gets? Implications of an asymptotic mortality decline and approaching the nadir in pediatric intensive care

Abstract

Despite advances in medicine, some children will always die; a decline in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) mortality to zero will never be achieved. The mortality decline is correspondingly asymptotic, yet we remain preoccupied with mortality outcomes. Are we at the nadir, and are we, thus, as good as we can get? And what should we focus to benchmark our units, if not mortality? In the face of changing case-mix and rising complexity, dramatic reductions in PICU mortality have been observed globally. At the same time, survivors have increasing disability, and deaths are often characterized by intensive life-sustaining therapies preceded by prolonged admissions, emphasizing the need to consider alternate outcome measures to evaluate our successes and failures. What are the costs and implications of reaching this nadir in mortality outcomes? We highlight the failings of our fixation with survival and an imperative to consider alternative outcomes in our PICUs, including the costs for both patients that survive and die, their families, healthcare providers, and society including perspectives in low resource settings. We describe the implications for benchmarking, research, and training the next generation of providers.Conlusion: Although survival remains a highly relevant metric, as PICUs continue to strive for clinical excellence, pushing boundaries in research and innovation, with endeavors in safety, quality, and high-reliability systems, we must prioritize outcomes beyond mortality, evaluate "costs" beyond economics, and find novel ways to improve the care we provide to all of our pediatric patients and their families. What is Known: • The fall in PICU mortality is asymptotic, and a decline to zero is not achievable. Approaching the nadir, we challenge readers to consider implications of focusing on medical and technological advances with survival as the sole outcome of interest. What is New: • Our fixation with survival has costs for patients, families, staff, and society. In the changing PICU landscape, we advocate to pivot towards alternate outcome metrics. • By considering the implications for benchmarking, research, and training, we may better care for patients and families, educate trainees, and expand what it means to succeed in the PICU.

Keywords: Benchmarking; Global health; Intensive Care units, Pediatric; Outcome assessment, Health care.