Household cooking fuel estimates at global and country level for 1990 to 2030

Abstract

Household air pollution generated from the use of polluting cooking fuels and technologies is a major source of disease and environmental degradation in low- and middle-income countries. Using a novel modelling approach, we provide detailed global, regional and country estimates of the percentages and populations mainly using 6 fuel categories (electricity, gaseous fuels, kerosene, biomass, charcoal, coal) and overall polluting/clean fuel use - from 1990-2020 and with urban/rural disaggregation. Here we show that 53% of the global population mainly used polluting cooking fuels in 1990, dropping to 36% in 2020. In urban areas, gaseous fuels currently dominate, with a growing reliance on electricity; in rural populations, high levels of biomass use persist alongside increasing use of gaseous fuels. Future projections of observed trends suggest 31% will still mainly use polluting fuels in 2030, including over 1 billion people in Sub-Saharan African by 2025.

Fig. 1. Cooking fuel categorization.

Classification of cooking fuels within the scope of the global household energy model as clean or polluting.

Fig. 2. Global use of clean and polluting fuels as the main fuel for cooking.

Estimated (posterior median) global populations mainly using clean and polluting fuels for cooking (shaded area), shown alongside the estimated (posterior median) percentage of the global population mainly cooking with polluting fuels (solid line), with 95% posterior uncertainty intervals (dotted lines).

Fig. 3. Regional use of polluting fuels as the main fuel for cooking.

Estimated (posterior median) percentage of the global population mainly cooking with polluting fuels in each SDG region, with 95% uncertainty intervals (shaded).

Fig. 4. Regional populations mainly using polluting fuels for cooking.

Estimated (posterior median) population mainly cooking with polluting fuels in each SDG region.

Fig. 5. Regional breakdown of the global population mainly using polluting fuels for cooking.

Estimated (posterior median) regional populations mainly using polluting fuels as a proportion of the estimated (posterior median) overall global population mainly using polluting fuels.

Fig. 6. Cooking fuel use in LMICs.

Estimated (posterior median) percentage of the population in LMICs mainly using each fuel type, with 95% uncertainty intervals.

Fig. 7. Cooking fuel use in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Estimated (posterior median) percentage of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa mainly using each fuel type (lines), with 95% uncertainty intervals (shaded areas). Plots for other regions are included in the Supplementary Information.

Fig. 8. Cooking fuel use in Ghana.

Estimated (posterior median) percentage of the urban population (left), the rural population (center) and overall population (right) of Ghana mainly using each fuel type, with central estimates as lines. Points show available survey data. The 95% uncertainty intervals shown as shaded areas combine model uncertainty and survey variability: where data are plentiful, the uncertainty is small and the intervals capture the vast majority of survey points, where survey data are limited or unavailable, in particular when projecting into the future, the uncertainty grows, and our uncertainty intervals are wider. Plots for other LMICs are included in the Supplementary Information.