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. 2021 Oct 12;14(1):82.
doi: 10.1186/s40545-021-00371-2.

Investigation the determinants of pharmaceutical expenditure share of GDP in Iran and selected OECD countries

Azin Kadkhodamanesh  1 , Vida Varahrami  2 , Leila Zarei  3 , Farzad Peiravian  4 , Mohammad Hadidi  5 , Nazila Yousefi  6
Affiliations

Investigation the determinants of pharmaceutical expenditure share of GDP in Iran and selected OECD countries

Azin Kadkhodamanesh et al. J Pharm Policy Pract. .

Abstract

Aim: This study estimated the GDP share of pharmaceuticals in Iran based on the drivers of pharmaceutical expenditure and compared it with that of 31 members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

Subject and methods: The factors contributing to pharmaceutical expenditure were identified through literature review and studied by 8 experts to classify the factors. Then, using the panel data method, a model was built to estimate the GDP share of pharmaceutical expenditure based on the extracted factors of the selected countries in Iran's model. To explain the observed differences, several regression analyses were performed based on cross-sectional data. The analyses were performed using EVIEWS software, version 10.

Results: The explanatory variables for the selected countries in the panel model (R2 = 0.98) were specified. Government health expenditure (β = 0.1432), the share of generic drugs (β = - 0.0143), gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (β = - 0.0058) and the rate of disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) (β = 0.0028) contributed most to pharmaceutical expenditure. In comparison, in the Iranian estimation model (R2 = 0.84), government health expenditure (β = 0.0536) and the share of generic drugs (β = 0.0369) had a significant impact on pharmaceutical expenditure. In the estimation model with more estimators for Iran (R2 = 0.99), government health expenditure (β = 0.1694), disease prevalence (β = 0.0537), the share of generic drugs (β = 0.0102), the DALY rate (β = 0.0039), GDP per capita (β = - 0.0033), and the drug price index (β = 0.0007) contribute most to pharmaceutical expenditure.

Conclusion: In the models of the study, factors related to the structure of the healthcare system and the pharmaceutical system contributed most to pharmaceutical expenditure as a share of GDP. Moreover, disease profiles show its predictive role in the second model for Iran.

Keywords: Health system; Panel data; Pharmaceutical expenditure; Pharmaceutical system; Time-series regression.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Comparison between pharmaceutical expenditure of Iran and the selected OECD countries (based on the [8])
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Conceptual model for the pharmaceutical expenditure of the selected OECD countries
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Conceptual model for Iran's pharmaceutical expenditure
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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