Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 Jul;42(7):1504-1523.
doi: 10.1111/risa.13842. Epub 2021 Oct 15.

Is Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication as Effective as Vaccination for Preventing Virus Diffusion? Measuring the Impacts of Failure in CERC with MERS-CoV Outbreak in South Korea

Ho Young Yoon  1
Affiliations

Is Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication as Effective as Vaccination for Preventing Virus Diffusion? Measuring the Impacts of Failure in CERC with MERS-CoV Outbreak in South Korea

Ho Young Yoon. Risk Anal. 2022 Jul.

Abstract

This study measured the impacts of failure in Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) during the outbreak of a contagious Corona viral disease. The study measured the impacts by the number of individuals and hospitals exposed to the virus. The 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in South Korea was used to investigate the consequences of CERC failure, where the names of hospitals exposed to MERS-CoV were withheld from the public during the early stage of virus diffusion. Empirical data analyses and simulated model tests were conducted. The findings of analyses and tests show that an early announcement of the hospital names and publicizing the necessary preventive measures could have reduced the rate of infection by approximately 85% and the number of contaminated healthcare facilities by 39% at maximum. This level of reduction is comparable to that of vaccination and of social distancing.

Keywords: Coronavirus; MERS-CoV; crisis & emergency risk communication; early warning; individual-based model.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
The timeline of important events.
Fig 2
Fig 2
Numbers of those exposed, infected, and with symptom onset by date.
Fig 3
Fig 3
Number of healthcare facilities exposed to the mers virus.
Fig 4
Fig 4
Search trend by date: “MERS Hospital”. * The numbers represent the relative search interest, with the highest peak as 100‐point popularity of the term for the given period.
Fig 5
Fig 5
Trends in virus diffusion: individually based models and the real case. (a) trends in the actual case and simulated full model. (b) trends in the simulated full model and early warning model
Fig A1
Fig A1
Model Synopsys.
Fig A2
Fig A2
Virus Diffusion Curve and Reduction Pattern with Preventive Measures. (Top Left) Vaccination: Number of Infections (Top Right) Social Distancing: Number of ICU Beds Required (Bottom) CERC Early Warning: Number of Virus Exposures.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Anderson, E. L. , Omenn, G. S. , & Turnham, P. (2020). Improving health risk assessment as a basis for public health decisions in the 21st century. Risk Analysis, 40(S1), 2272–2299. - PubMed
    1. Agüero, F. , Adell, M. N. , Giménez, A. P. , Medina, M. J. L. , & Continente, X. G. (2011). Adoption of preventive measures during and after the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic peak in Spain. Preventive Medicine, 53(3), 203–206. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Atti, M. L. , Merler, S. , Rizzo, C. , Ajelli, M. , Massari, M. , Manfredi, P. , … Ahmed, N. (2008). Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: An individual based model considering different scenarios. PLoS One, 3(3), e1790. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Aven, T. (2011). On some recent definitions and analysis frameworks for risk, vulnerability, and resilience. Risk Analysis, 31 (4), 515–522 - PubMed
    1. Aven, T. (2012). Introduction. In Foundations of risk analysis (pp. 1–6). West Sussex, UK: John Wiley & Sons.

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources