Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation

Abstract

Europeans are not only exposed to direct effects from climate change, but also vulnerable to indirect effects from infectious disease, many of which are climate sensitive, which is of concern because of their epidemic potential. Climatic conditions have facilitated vector-borne disease outbreaks like chikungunya, dengue, and West Nile fever and have contributed to a geographic range expansion of tick vectors that transmit Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis. Extreme precipitation events have caused waterborne outbreaks and longer summer seasons have contributed to increases in foodborne diseases. Under the Green Deal, The European Union aims to support climate change health policy, in order to be better prepared for the next health security threat, particularly in the aftermath of the traumatic COVID-19 experience. To bolster this policy process we discuss climate change-related hazards, exposures and vulnerabilities to infectious disease and describe observed impacts, projected risks, with policy entry points for adaptation to reduce these risks or avoid them altogether.

Figure 1

Climate change impacts on infectious diseases and policy entry points for reducing climate change risks from hazards, exposure and vulnerability.

Figure 2

Current known distribution of the Culex pipiens group (Culex pipiens and Culex torrentium) in Europe at ‘regional’ administrative level, as of March 2021.

Figure 3

Current known distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe at ‘regional’ administrative level, as of March 2021. Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and European Food Safety Authority. Mosquito maps [internet]. Stockholm: ECDC; 2021. Available from: https://ecdc.europa.eu/en/disease-vectors/surveillance-and-disease-data/mosquito-maps

Figure 4

Current known distribution of Phlebotomus perniciosus in Europe at ‘regional’ administrative level, as of April 2021. P. perniciosus one of the predominant L. infantum vectors in Europe. Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and European Food Safety Authority. Phlebotomine sandflies maps [internet]. Stockholm: ECDC; 2021. Available from: https://ecdc.europa.eu/en/disease-vectors/surveillance-and-disease-data/phlebotomine-maps

Figure 5

Climate change adaptation options for vector-borne diseases in Europe. Note: Time scale is relative. Source: Adapted from: Semenza JC. Cascading risks of waterborne diseases from climate change. Nature Immunol 2020;21(5):484-487.

Figure 6

ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer: environmental suitability for Vibrio spp., July 2014, Baltic Sea. Source: https://e3geoportal.ecdc.europa.eu/SitePages/Vibrio%20Map%20Viewer.aspx.