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. 2021 Dec:216:None.
doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104255.

Disentangling associations between vegetation greenness and dengue in a Latin American city: Findings and challenges

Maria da Consolação Magalhães Cunha  1   2 , Yang Ju  3 , Maria Helena Franco Morais  4 , Iryna Dronova  5 , Sérvio Pontes Ribeiro  6 , Fábio Raphael Pascoti Bruhn  7 , Larissa Lopes Lima  1   8 , Denise Marques Sales  1 , Olivia Lang Schultes  1 , Daniel A Rodriguez  9 , Waleska Teixeira Caiaffa  1
Affiliations

Disentangling associations between vegetation greenness and dengue in a Latin American city: Findings and challenges

Maria da Consolação Magalhães Cunha et al. Landsc Urban Plan. 2021 Dec.

Abstract

Being a Re-Emerging Infectious Disease, dengue causes 390 million cases globally and is prevalent in many urban areas in South America. Understanding the fine-scale relationships between dengue incidence and environmental and socioeconomic factors can guide improved disease prevention strategies. This ecological study examines the association between dengue incidence and satellite-based vegetation greenness in 3826 census tracts nested in 474 neighborhoods in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during the 2010 dengue epidemic. To reduce potential bias in the estimated dengue-greenness association, we adjusted for socioeconomic vulnerability, population density, building height and density, land cover composition, elevation, weather patterns, and neighborhood random effects. We found that vegetation greenness was negatively associated with dengue incidence in a univariate model, and this association attenuated after controlling for additional covariates. The dengue-greenness association was modified by socioeconomic vulnerability: while a positive association was observed in the least vulnerable census tracts, the association was negative in the most vulnerable areas. Using greenness as a proxy for vegetation quality, our results show the potential of vegetation management in reducing dengue incidence, particularly in socioeconomically vulnerable areas. We also discuss the role of water infrastructure, sanitation services, and tree cover in lowering dengue risk.

Keywords: Dengue; Greenness; Planning and policy implications; Reemerging infectious disease; Socioeconomic vulnerability.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Study area. (a) Census tracts nested in neighborhoods, and spatial distribution of (b) Dengue incidence rate (cases/100,000 population) during the 2010 epidemic; (c) greenness, with higher values indicating more and better quality vegetation; (d) vulnerability, measured by the Health Vulnerability Index, with higher values indicating more vulnerability. Values in (b) – (d) are classified by quantile classification.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Associations (IRR) between dengue incidence and vegetation greenness, conditioned on socioeconomic vulnerability. IRR is the factor by which dengue incidence (annual dengue cases per 100,000 residents) changes for a one-unit increase in a covariate, when holding other covariates constant. Socioeconomic vulnerability is measured by the Health Vulnerability Index. 95% confidence intervals of the IRRs are shaded.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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