Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Oct 6:12:738213.
doi: 10.3389/fendo.2021.738213. eCollection 2021.

Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study

Fang Cheng  1 , Juan Xiao  2 , Chunchun Shao  2 , Fengyan Huang  1 , Lihua Wang  1 , Yanli Ju  1 , Hongying Jia  1   2
Affiliations

Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2019 and Projections of Incidence and Mortality Until 2039 in China: Findings From Global Burden of Disease Study

Fang Cheng et al. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). .

Abstract

Projecting the burden of thyroid cancer (TC) over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. This research obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study from between 1990 and 2019 to model how TC will affect China until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new TC cases in China was 10,030 in 1990, 39,080 in 2019, and is projected to be 47,820 in 2039. This corresponds to 3,320, 7,240, and 4,160 deaths, respectively. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases increased from 103,490 in 1990 to 187,320 in 2019. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence increased from 1.01 to 2.05 during 1990-2019 and was projected to increase to 3.37 per 100,000 person-years until 2039. The ASR of mortality (ASMR) remained stable during the study period and was projected to have a mild decline from 0.39 to 0.29/100,000 during 2020-2039. Although the ASMR in male patients has maintained increasing at a rate of 2.2% per year over the past 30 years, it is expected to decline at a rate of 1.07% per year in 2019-2039. The most significant increase in crude incidence occurred in people aged 45-65 from 1990 to 2019, however, this will shift into young people aged 10-24 from 2020 to 2039. In addition, the proportion of deaths and DALYs caused by obesity increased from 1990 to 2019 and affected men more than women. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence of TC in China is projected over the next two decades, combined with the slightly declining mortality, indicating that rational health policies are needed in the future to cope with the increasing number of TC patients, especially among males and adolescents.

Keywords: China; disease burden; incidence; mortality; projection; thyroid cancer.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Long-term trends in crude incidence and mortality rate of thyroid cancer by age from 1990 to 2019 in China: incidence (A) and mortality (B) in total population; incidence (C) and mortality (D) in men; incidence (E) and mortality (F) in women.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Numbers and rates of incidence (A), death (B), and DALYs (C) of thyroid cancer by age and sex in 2019 in China. Shading represents the upper and lower limits of the 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs). DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trends for ASIR (A), age specific incidence rate (B), ASMR (C), age specific mortality rate (D), age-standardized DALY rate (E), and age specific DALYs rate (F) of thyroid cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. ASIR, age-standardized incidence rate; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate; DALYs, disability-adjusted life-years.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The projections of ASIR (A–C) and ASMR (D–F) in total population, men and women of thyroid cancer from 2020 to 2039 in China. The open dots represent the observed values, and the fan shape denotes the predictive distribution between the 2.5 and 97.5% quantiles. The predictive mean value is shown as a solid line. The vertical dashed line indicates where the prediction starts. ASIR, age-standardized incidence rate; ASMR, age-standardized mortality rate.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The projections of incidence number (A–C) and deaths (D–F) in total population, men and women of thyroid cancer from 2020 to 2039 in China. The error bar denotes the 95% credible interval of the predictive value.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Pstrąg N, Ziemnicka K, Bluyssen H, Wesoły J. Thyroid Cancers of Follicular Origin in a Genomic Light: in-Depth Overview of Common and Unique Molecular Marker Candidates. Mol Cancer (2018) 17(1):116. doi: 10.1186/s12943-018-0866-1 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Sung H, Ferlay J, Siegel RL, Laversanne M, Soerjomataram I, Jemal A, et al. . Global Cancer Statistics 2020: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin (2021) 71(3):209–49. doi: 10.3322/caac.21660 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Ahn H, Kim H, Kim K, Lee Y, Han S, Kim Y, et al. . Thyroid Cancer Screening in South Korea Increases Detection of Papillary Cancers With No Impact on Other Subtypes or Thyroid Cancer Mortality. Thyroid (2016) 26: (11):1535–40. doi: 10.1089/thy.2016.0075 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Kitahara CM, Sosa JA. The Changing Incidence of Thyroid Cancer. Nat Rev Endocrinol (2016) 12(11):646–53. doi: 10.1038/nrendo.2016.110 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Ferrari SM, Fallahi P, Ruffilli I, Elia G, Ragusa F, Paparo SR, et al. . Molecular Testing in the Diagnosis of Differentiated Thyroid Carcinomas. Gland Surg (2018) 7(Suppl 1):S19–s29. doi: 10.21037/gs.2017.11.07 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types