Does restaging MRI radiomics analysis improve pathological complete response prediction in rectal cancer patients? A prognostic model development

Abstract

Purpose: Our study investigated the contribution that the application of radiomics analysis on post-treatment magnetic resonance imaging can add to the assessments performed by an experienced disease-specific multidisciplinary tumor board (MTB) for the prediction of pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC).

Materials and methods: This analysis included consecutively retrospective LARC patients who obtained a complete or near-complete response after nCRT and/or a pCR after surgery between January 2010 and September 2019. A three-step radiomics features selection was performed and three models were generated: a radiomics model (rRM), a multidisciplinary tumor board model (yMTB) and a combined model (CM). The predictive performance of models was quantified using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, evaluating the area under curve (AUC).

Results: The analysis involved 144 LARC patients; a total of 232 radiomics features were extracted from the MR images acquired post-nCRT. The yMTB, rRM and CM predicted pCR with an AUC of 0.82, 0.73 and 0.84, respectively. ROC comparison was not significant (p = 0.6) between yMTB and CM.

Conclusion: Radiomics analysis showed good performance in identifying complete responders, which increased when combined with standard clinical evaluation; this increase was not statistically significant but did improve the prediction of clinical response.

Keywords: Magnetic resonance imaging; Multidisciplinary tumor board; Neoadjuvant chemoradiation; Radiomics; Rectal cancer; Response prediction.