Development and validation of a one-step modelling approach for the determination of chicken meat shelf-life based on the growth kinetics of Pseudomonas spp

Abstract

The main objective of the present study was to investigate the effect of storage temperature on aerobically stored chicken meat spoilage using the two-step and one-step modelling approaches involving different primary models namely the modified Gompertz, logistic, Baranyi and Huang models. For this purpose, growth data points of Pseudomonas spp. were collected from published studies conducted in aerobically stored chicken meat product. Temperature-dependent kinetic parameters (maximum specific growth rate 'µ_max' and lag phase duration 'λ') were described as a function of storage temperature through the Ratkowsky model based on the different primary models. Then, the fitting capability of both modelling approaches was compared taking into account root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted-R²) and corrected Akaike information criterion. The one-step modelling approach showed considerably improved fitting capability regardless of the used primary model. Finally, models developed from the one-step modelling approach were validated for the maximum growth rate data extracted from independent published literature using the statistical indexes Bias (B_f) and Accuracy (A_f) factors. The best prediction capability was obtained for the Baranyi model with B_f and A_f being very close to 1. The shelf-life of chicken meat as a function of storage temperature was predicted using both modelling approaches for the Baranyi model.

Keywords: chicken meat; food spoilage; growth kinetics; microbiological quality; one-step modelling; predictive microbiology.