Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Nov 4:149:e264.
doi: 10.1017/S0950268821002417.

Estimating the SARS-CoV2 infections detection rate and cumulative incidence in the World Health Organization African Region 10 months into the pandemic

Benido Impouma  1   2 , Franck Mboussou  1 , Cyrus Shahpar  2 , Caitlin M Wolfe  1   3 , Bridget Farham  1 , George Sie Williams  1 , Humphrey Karamagi  1 , Roland Ngom  1 , Ngoy Nsenga  1 , Antoine Flahault  4 , Cláudia Torres Codeço  5 , Zabulon Yoti  1 , Francis Kasolo  1 , Olivia Keiser  4
Affiliations

Estimating the SARS-CoV2 infections detection rate and cumulative incidence in the World Health Organization African Region 10 months into the pandemic

Benido Impouma et al. Epidemiol Infect. .

Abstract

As of 03 January 2021, the WHO African region is the least affected by the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, accounting for only 2.4% of cases and deaths reported globally. However, concerns abound about whether the number of cases and deaths reported from the region reflect the true burden of the disease and how the monitoring of the pandemic trajectory can inform response measures.We retrospectively estimated four key epidemiological parameters (the total number of cases, the number of missed cases, the detection rate and the cumulative incidence) using the COVID-19 prevalence calculator tool developed by Resolve to Save Lives. We used cumulative cases and deaths reported during the period 25 February to 31 December 2020 for each WHO Member State in the region as well as population data to estimate the four parameters of interest. The estimated number of confirmed cases in 42 countries out of 47 of the WHO African region included in this study was 13 947 631 [95% confidence interval (CI): 13 334 620-14 635 502] against 1 889 512 cases reported, representing 13.5% of overall detection rate (range: 4.2% in Chad, 43.9% in Guinea). The cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was estimated at 1.38% (95% CI: 1.31%-1.44%), with South Africa the highest [14.5% (95% CI: 13.9%-15.2%)] and Mauritius [0.1% (95% CI: 0.099%-0.11%)] the lowest. The low detection rate found in most countries of the WHO African region suggests the need to strengthen SARS-CoV-2 testing capacities and adjusting testing strategies.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; cumulative incidence; detection rate.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Geographical distribution of the estimated cumulative number of SARS-CoV2 infections and detection rate in 42 countries in the WHO African region, as of 31 December 2020.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Estimated cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection by country in the WHO African region, as of 31 December 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Zhu N et al. (2020) A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. New England Journal of Medicine 382, 727–733. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Cucinotta C and Vanelli M (2020) WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic. Acta Bio-Medica: Atenei Parmensis 91, 157–160. - PMC - PubMed
    1. WHO Regional Office for Africa. A second COVID-19 case is confirmed in Africa (https://www.afro.who.int/news/second-covid-19-case-confirmed-africa). Accessed 9 September 2020.
    1. The Lancet (2020) COVID-19 in Africa: no room for complacency. Lancet (London, England) 395, 1669. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Cabore JW et al. (2020) The potential effects of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the World Health Organization African Region: a predictive model. BMJ Global Health 5, e002647. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002647. - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types