Investigating regional excess mortality during 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in selected Latin American countries

Abstract

In this paper, we measure the effect of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wave at the national and subnational levels in selected Latin American countries that were most affected: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. We used publicly available monthly mortality data to measure the impacts of the pandemic using excess mortality for each country and its regions. We compare the mortality, at national and regional levels, in 2020 to the mortality levels of recent trends and provide estimates of the impact of mortality on life expectancy at birth. Our findings indicate that from April 2020 on, mortality exceeded its usual monthly levels in multiple areas of each country. In Mexico and Peru, excess mortality was spreading through many areas by the end of the second half of 2020. To a lesser extent, we observed a similar pattern in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. We also found that as the pandemic progressed, excess mortality became more visible in areas with poorer socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. This excess mortality has reduced life expectancy across these countries by 2-10 years. Despite the lack of reliable information on COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality is a useful indicator for measuring the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in the context of Latin American countries, where there is still a lack of good information on causes of death in their vital registration systems.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00139-1.

Keywords: COVID-19; Excess mortality; Latin America; Pandemic; Subnational areas.

Fig. 1

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: deaths from all causes and ages compared to previous years in selected Latin American countries and their subnational areas in 2020. Threshold of 50 percent excess mortality. Source: Ministry of Health of Brazil, Chile, and Peru, 2021; National Civil Registry Ecuador (Gobierno de la República del Ecuador, 2021); National Registry of Persons Guatemala (RENAP, 2021); and Secretariat of Health, Mexico (DGE-SS 2021). Names and acronyms of countries are presented in Additional file 4: Table S1

Fig. 2

Distribution of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: deaths from all causes compared to previous years, all ages in selected countries and regions of Latin America in 2020. Source: Ministry of Health, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, 2021; National Civil Registry Ecuador (Gobierno de la República del Ecuador, 2021); National Registry of Persons Guatemala (RENAP, 2021); and Secretariat of Health, Mexico (DGE-SS, 2021). Names and acronyms of countries are presented in Additional file 4: Table S1

Fig. 3

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic: deaths from all causes compared to previous years, all ages. The 10 highest values of excess mortality in regions of Latin American countries in 2020. Source: Ministry of Health, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, 2021; National Civil Registry Ecuador (Gobierno de la República del Ecuador, 2021); National Registry of Persons Guatemala (RENAP, 2021); and Secretariat of Health, Mexico (DGE-SS, 2021). Names and acronyms of countries are presented in Additional file 4: Table S1