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. 2022 Mar 15:812:151431.
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151431. Epub 2021 Nov 5.

Predicting COVID-19 cases in diverse population groups using SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring across Oklahoma City

Katrin Gaardbo Kuhn  1 , Jane Jarshaw  2 , Erin Jeffries  3 , Kunle Adesigbin  4 , Phil Maytubby  4 , Nicole Dundas  5 , A Caitlin Miller  6 , Emily Rhodes  6 , Bradley Stevenson  3 , Jason Vogel  6 , Halley Reeves  7
Affiliations

Predicting COVID-19 cases in diverse population groups using SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring across Oklahoma City

Katrin Gaardbo Kuhn et al. Sci Total Environ. .

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 was discovered among humans in late 2019 and rapidly spread across the world. Although the virus is transmitted by respiratory droplets, most infected persons also excrete viral particles in their feces. This fact prompted a range of studies assessing the usefulness of wastewater surveillance to determine levels of infection and transmission and produce early warnings of outbreaks in local communities, independently of human testing. In this study, we collected samples of wastewater from 13 locations across Oklahoma City, representing different population types, twice per week from November 2020 to end of March 2021. Wastewater samples were collected and analyzed for the presence and concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA using RT-qPCR. The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in the wastewater showed notable peaks, preceding the number of reported COVID-19 cases by an average of one week (ranging between 4 and 10 days). The early warning lead-time for an outbreak or increase in cases was significantly higher in areas with larger Hispanic populations and lower in areas with a higher household income or higher proportion of persons aged 65 years or older. Using this relationship, we predicted the number of cases with an accuracy of 81-92% compared to reported cases. These results confirm the validity and timeliness of using wastewater surveillance for monitoring local disease transmission and highlight the importance of differences in population structures when interpreting surveillance outputs and planning preventive action.

Keywords: COVID-19; Demography; Early warning; Outbreak; Predictions; Wastewater.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Unlabelled Image
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Monthly average concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 (Copies/Liter) in wastewater from 13 locations across Oklahoma City in (a) November 2020, (b) December 2020, (c) January 2021, (d) February 2021 and (e) March 2021.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Daily average concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 (1000 copies/Liter) in wastewater and daily SARS-CoV-2 cases from monitored locations in Oklahoma City, November 2020 through March 2021.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Reported and sewage-driven predicted cases of COVID-19 in in monitored locations in Oklahoma City, November 2020 through March 2021.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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