Prescription opioid treatment for non-cancer pain and initiation of injection drug use: large retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Objective: To assess the association between long term prescription opioid treatment medically dispensed for non-cancer pain and the initiation of injection drug use (IDU) among individuals without a history of substance use.

Design: Retrospective cohort study.

Setting: Large administrative data source (containing information for about 1.7 million individuals tested for hepatitis C virus or HIV in British Columbia, Canada) with linkage to administrative health databases, including dispensations from community pharmacies.

Participants: Individuals age 11-65 years and without a history of substance use (except alcohol) at baseline.

Main outcome measures: Episodes of prescription opioid use for non-cancer pain were identified based on drugs dispensed between 2000 and 2015. Episodes were classified by the increasing length and intensity of opioid use (acute (lasting <90 episode days), episodic (lasting ≥90 episode days; with <90 days' drug supply and/or <50% episode intensity), and chronic (lasting ≥90 episode days; with ≥90 days' drug supply and ≥50% episode intensity)). People with a chronic episode were matched 1:1:1:1 on socioeconomic variables to those with episodic or acute episodes and to those who were opioid naive. IDU initiation was identified by a validated administrative algorithm with high specificity. Cox models weighted by inverse probability of treatment weights assessed the association between opioid use category (chronic, episodic, acute, opioid naive) and IDU initiation.

Results: 59 804 participants (14 951 people from each opioid use category) were included in the matched cohort, and followed for a median of 5.8 years. 1149 participants initiated IDU. Cumulative probability of IDU initiation at five years was highest for participants with chronic opioid use (4.0%), followed by those with episodic use (1.3%) and acute use (0.7%), and those who were opioid naive (0.4%). In the inverse probability of treatment weighted Cox model, risk of IDU initiation was 8.4 times higher for those with chronic opioid use versus those who were opioid naive (95% confidence interval 6.4 to 10.9). In a sensitivity analysis limited to individuals with a history of chronic pain, cumulative risk for those with chronic use (3.4% within five years) was lower than the primary results, but the relative risk was not (hazard ratio 9.7 (95% confidence interval 6.5 to 14.5)). IDU initiation was more frequent at higher opioid doses and younger ages.

Conclusions: The rate of IDU initiation among individuals who received chronic prescription opioid treatment for non-cancer pain was infrequent overall (3-4% within five years) but about eight times higher than among opioid naive individuals. These findings could have implications for strategies to prevent IDU initiation, but should not be used as a reason to support involuntary tapering or discontinuation of long term prescription opioid treatment.

Fig 1

Study flowchart. IDEAs=Integrated Data and Evaluative Analytics data platform; PO=prescription opioid. *Opioid naive or acute use cohort contains the pool of potential opioid naive or acute use individuals available for matching to the chronic use category; see methods for more detailed definitions of opioid use episodes

Fig 2

Cumulative incidence of injection drug use initiation by prescription opioid use category, age at initiation of chronic episode (chronic use category only), and average daily dose of chronic episode (chronic use category only). PO=prescription opioid; MEQ=morphine equivalents; IDU=injection drug use. See methods for more details on opioid use categories. Average daily dose calculated as the cumulative morphine equivalents dispensed during episode divided by number of episode days covered by drug supply