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. 2021 Nov;6(11):e007076.
doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007076.

Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020-April 2021

Oluwatosin Wuraola Akande  1   2 , Kelly Osezele Elimian  3   2   4 , Ehimario Igumbor  2   5   6 , Lauryn Dunkwu  7 , Chijioke Kaduru  2   8 , Olubunmi Omowunmi Olopha  3   2 , Dabri Olohije Ohanu  2   5 , Lilian Nwozor  3   2 , Emmanuel Agogo  2   9 , Olusola Aruna  10 , Muhammad Shakir Balogun  11 , Olaolu Aderinola  12 , Anthony Ahumibe  13 , Chinedu Arinze  14 , Sikiru Olanrewaju Badaru  3 , William Nwachukwu  14 , Augustine Olajide Dada  11 , Cyril Erameh  15 , Khadeejah Hamza  16 , Tarik Benjamin Mohammed  5 , Nnaemeka Ndodo  13 , Celestina Obiekea  13 , Chinenye Ofoegbunam  14 , Oladipo Ogunbode  3 , Cornelius Ohonsi  3   2 , Ekaete Alice Tobin  15 , Rimamdeyati Yashe  14 , Afolabi Adekaiyaoja  7 , Michael C Asuzu  2   17 , Rosemary Ajuma Audu  2   18 , Muhammad Bashir Bello  2   19 , Shaibu Oricha Bello  2   20 , Yusuf Yahaya Deeni  2   21   22 , Yahya Disu  3 , Gbenga Joseph  12 , Chidiebere Ezeokafor  2   23 , Zaiyad Garba Habib  2   24 , Christian Ibeh  2   25 , Ifeanyi Franklin Ike  26 , Emem Iwara  2   27 , Rejoice Kudirat Luka-Lawal  12 , Geoffrey Namara  28 , Tochi Okwor  3   2 , Lois Olajide  14 , Oluwafunke Olufemi Ilesanmi  2   28 , Solomon Omonigho  29 , Ferdinand Oyiri  14 , Koubagnine Takpa  2   30 , Nkem Usha Ugbogulu  14 , Priscilla Ibekwe  5 , John Oladejo  12 , Elsie Ilori  14 , Chinwe Lucia Ochu  3   2 , Chikwe Ihekweazu  2   5
Affiliations

Epidemiological comparison of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, February 2020-April 2021

Oluwatosin Wuraola Akande et al. BMJ Glob Health. 2021 Nov.

Abstract

Background: With reports of surges in COVID-19 case numbers across over 50 countries, country-level epidemiological analysis is required to inform context-appropriate response strategies for containment and mitigation of the outbreak. We aimed to compare the epidemiological features of the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Nigeria.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System data of the first and second epidemiological waves, which were between 27 February and 24 October 2020, and 25 October 2020 to 3 April 2021, respectively. Descriptive statistical measures including frequencies and percentages, test positivity rate (TPR), cumulative incidence (CI) and case fatality rates (CFRs) were compared. A p value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. All statistical analyses were carried out in STATA V.13.

Results: There were 802 143 tests recorded during the study period (362 550 and 439 593 in the first and second waves, respectively). Of these, 66 121 (18.2%) and 91 644 (20.8%) tested positive in the first and second waves, respectively. There was a 21.3% increase in the number of tests conducted in the second wave with TPR increasing by 14.3%. CI during the first and second waves were 30.3/100 000 and 42.0/100 000 respectively. During the second wave, confirmed COVID-19 cases increased among females and people 30 years old or younger and decreased among urban residents and individuals with travel history within 14 days of sample collection (p value <0.001). Most confirmed cases were asymptomatic at diagnosis during both waves: 74.9% in the first wave; 79.7% in the second wave. CFR decreased during the second wave (0.7%) compared with the first wave (1.8%).

Conclusion: Nigeria experienced a larger but less severe second wave of COVID-19. Continued implementation of public health and social measures is needed to mitigate the resurgence of another wave.

Keywords: COVID-19; descriptive study; epidemiology.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Distribution of confirmed cases showing outcomes by epidemiological week.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Percentage increase in cases between the first and second waves.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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