Response of cyanobacterial bloom risk to nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in large shallow lakes determined through geographical detector: A case study of Taihu Lake, China

Abstract

Understanding the sensitivity of the response of chlorophyll (Chla) to nutrients (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) concentrations is important for predicting cyanobacterial bloom risk. However, the processes by which nutrients in lake that affect cyanobacterial growth and outbreaks are nonlinear, gradual and spatially and temporally heterogeneous, and the single response thresholds of concentrations between nutrients and the Chla proposed in current studies maybe hardly reflect these characteristics. Due to three decades of rapid regional socio-economic development, the eutrophication in Taihu Lake of China is serious and there are cyanobacterial blooms every year. In this study, we quantified the interaction effects of different forms of nitrogen and phosphorus on Chla concentrations in lake water and sediment pore water. And a refined response threshold range with continuous variation was proposed to characterize the relationship between the Chla concentration and the NH₄-N, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. The results showed that TP was the dominant factor influencing the spatial variation of cyanobacteria blooms in most areas of Taihu Lake, followed by TN. TP should therefore be the highest priority for future pollution load reduction in Taihu Lake. The effects of the interactions between the pollution factors were greater than the sum of them individually. NH₄-N and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) are likely to be preferentially consumed by algae for growth and should be the focus of nutrient control efforts in Taihu Lake. For cyanobacterial risk prediction, prevention and control, NH₄-N, TN and TP concentrations of 0.06 mg/L, 2.89 mg/L and 0.06 mg/L, respectively, can be used to indicate the beginning of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu Lake, and concentrations of 0.34 mg/L, 4.67 mg/L and 0.11 mg/L, respectively, can be used as reference thresholds to indicate serious cyanobacterial blooms.

Keywords: Concentration threshold; Cyanobacterial blooms; Eutrophication; Fuzzy logic; Geographical detector method; Spatial heterogeneity.