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Review
. 2021 Dec;69(6S):S23-S30.
doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2021.07.037.

Projecting the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Child Marriage

Joshua Yukich  1 , Matt Worges  2 , Anastasia J Gage  2 , David R Hotchkiss  2 , Annie Preaux  3 , Colleen Murray  4 , Claudia Cappa  5
Affiliations
Review

Projecting the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Child Marriage

Joshua Yukich et al. J Adolesc Health. 2021 Dec.

Abstract

Purpose: The study projects the potential impact of COVID-19 on child marriage in the five countries in which the burden of child marriage is the largest: Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia, India, and Nigeria.

Methods: The projected impact of the pandemic on child marriage is based on a Markov model. A review of empirical and theoretical literature informed construction and parameter estimates of five pathways through which we expect an elevated marriage hazard: death of a parent, interruption of education, pregnancy risk, household income shocks, and reduced access to programs and services. Models are produced for an unmitigated scenario and a mitigated scenario in which effective interventions are applied to reduce the impact.

Results: The total number of excess child marriages in these five countries could range from 3.5 million to 4.9 million in the unmitigated scenario and from 1.8 million to 2.7 million in the mitigated scenario. The elevated risk compared with the baseline projection would continue until 2035.

Conclusions: These projections represent the impact in five countries that account for 50% of child marriages globally, implying that if similar patterns hold, we might expect the number of excess child marriages due to the pandemic to reach 7 million to 10 million globally. These estimates are necessarily subject to high levels of uncertainty because of limited evidence on the impacts in relation to child marriage and for parameter estimates. It will likely take years to understand the full impact of the pandemic. Despite these limitations, the potential for harm is unquestionably large.

Keywords: Adolescent girls; Child marriage; Child rights; Early marriage; Pandemic.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Schematic of the Markov model.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Percentage of women aged 20–24 years who were first married or in union before age 18, observed and projected.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. World Health Organization WHO coronavirus (COVID-19) dashboard. https://covid19.who.int/ Available at:
    1. United Nations Population Fund . UNFPA; New York: 2020. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on family planning and ending gender-based violence, female genital mutilation and child marriage. UNFPA Information Note.
    1. Szabo G., Edwards J. Save the Children; London: 2020. The global girlhood report 2020: How COVID-19 is putting progress in peril.
    1. United Nations Children’s Fund . UNICEF; New York: 2021. COVID-19: A threat to progress against child marriage.
    1. United Nations Children's Fund . UNICEF; New York: 2018. Child marriage: Latest trends and future prospects.

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