Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Nov 23;21(1):563.
doi: 10.1186/s12872-021-02372-0.

A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning

Hamid Sharif Nia  1 , Ozkan Gorgulu  2 , Navaz Naghavi  3 , Erika Sivarajan Froelicher  4   5 , Fatemeh Khoshnavay Fomani  6 , Amir Hossein Goudarzian  7 , Saeed Pahlevan Sharif  8 , Roghiyeh Pourkia  9 , Ali Akbar Haghdoost  10
Affiliations

A time-series prediction model of acute myocardial infarction in northern of Iran: the risk of climate change and religious mourning

Hamid Sharif Nia et al. BMC Cardiovasc Disord. .

Erratum in

Abstract

Background: Although various studies have been conducted on the effects of seasonal climate changes or emotional variables on the risk of AMI, many of them have limitations to determine the predictable model. The currents study is conducted to assess the effects of meteorological and emotional variables on the incidence and epidemiological occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Sari (capital of Mazandaran, Iran) during 2011-2018.

Methods: In this study, a time series analysis was used to determine the variation of variables over time. All series were seasonally adjusted and Poisson regression analysis was performed. In the analysis of meteorological data and emotional distress due to religious mourning events, the best results were obtained by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (5,5) model.

Results: It was determined that average temperature, sunshine, and rain variables had a significant effect on death. A total of 2375 AMI's were enrolled. Average temperate (°C) and sunshine hours a day (h/day) had a statistically significant relationship with the number of AMI's (β = 0.011, P = 0.014). For every extra degree of temperature increase, the risk of AMI rose [OR = 1.011 (95%CI 1.00, 1.02)]. For every extra hour of sunshine, a day a statistically significant increase [OR = 1.02 (95% CI 1.01, 1.04)] in AMI risk occurred (β = 0.025, P = 0.001). Religious mourning events increase the risk of AMI 1.05 times more. The other independent variables have no significant effects on AMI's (P > 0.05).

Conclusion: Results demonstrate that sunshine hours and the average temperature had a significant effect on the risk of AMI. Moreover, emotional distress due to religious morning events increases AMI. More specific research on this topic is recommended.

Keywords: Acute myocardial infarction; Iran; Time series; Weather.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors didn’t have any financial conflicts to declare with any persons or organizations regarding to this study.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
ACF (a) ve PACF (b) figures
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Residual’s ACF (a) and PACF (b) graphs
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Sharif Nia H, Haghdoost AA, Nazari R, Bahrami N, Soleimani MA, Pormand K. Relationship of risk factors and ST segment changes with symptoms of acute coronary syndrome. Koomesh. 2013;15(1):46–53.
    1. Vallabhajosyula S, Vallabhajosyula S, Burstein B, et al. Epidemiology of in-hospital cardiac arrest complicating non–ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction receiving early coronary angiography. Am Heart J. 2020;223:59–64. - PubMed
    1. Mitka M. Heart disease a global health threat. JAMA. 2004;291(21):2533–2533. - PubMed
    1. World Health Report . Reducing risks, promoting healthy life. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2002.
    1. Raymond DBM. The early heart attack care program catheterization. J Cardiovasc Diagn. 2000;53(3):157.