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. 2021 Nov;26(47):2101001.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101001.

Estimating averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths by COVID-19 vaccination, Italy, January-September 2021

Chiara Sacco  1 , Alberto Mateo-Urdiales  1 , Daniele Petrone  1 , Matteo Spuri  1 , Massimo Fabiani  1 , Maria Fenicia Vescio  1 , Marco Bressi  1 , Flavia Riccardo  1 , Martina Del Manso  1 , Antonino Bella  1 , Patrizio Pezzotti  1 ; Italian Integrated Surveillance of COVID-19 study group  2
Affiliations

Estimating averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, intensive care unit admissions and deaths by COVID-19 vaccination, Italy, January-September 2021

Chiara Sacco et al. Euro Surveill. 2021 Nov.

Abstract

We assessed the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy, by estimating numbers of averted COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths between January and September 2021, by age group and geographical macro areas. Timing and speed of vaccination programme implementation varied slightly between geographical areas, particularly for older adults. We estimated that 445,193 (17% of expected; range: 331,059-616,054) cases, 79,152 (32%; range: 53,209-148,756) hospitalisations, 9,839 ICU admissions (29%; range: 6,434-16,276) and 22,067 (38%; range: 13,571-48,026) deaths were prevented by vaccination.

Keywords: Italy; SARS-CoV-2; averted events; impact; vaccines.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Cumulative monthly full vaccination coverage by age group and geographical macro areaa, Italy, week 2/2021−week 38/2021
Figure 2
Figure 2
Cumulative and expected incidence rate (A) and cumulative and expected hospitalisation rate (B) with uncertainty rangesa, by period, age group and geographical macro area, Italy, week 2/2021−week 38/2021
Figure 3
Figure 3
Cumulative and expected ICU admission rate (A) and cumulative and expected mortality rate (B) with uncertainty rangesa, by period, age group and geographical macro area, Italy, week 2/2021−week 38/2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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