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. 2021 Nov;26(47):2101021.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.47.2101021.

Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021

Margaux Mi Meslé  1 , Jeremy Brown  1 , Piers Mook  1 , José Hagan  1 , Roberta Pastore  1 , Nick Bundle  2 , Gianfranco Spiteri  2 , Giovanni Ravasi  2 , Nathalie Nicolay  2 , Nick Andrews  3 , Tetiana Dykhanovska  4 , Joël Mossong  5 , Małgorzata Sadkowska-Todys  6 , Raina Nikiforova  7 , Flavia Riccardo  8 , Hinta Meijerink  9 , Clara Mazagatos  10 , Jan Kyncl  11 , Jim McMenamin  12 , Tanya Melillo  13 , Stella Kaoustou  14 , Daniel Lévy-Bruhl  15 , Freek Haarhuis  16 , Rivka Rich  17 , Meaghan Kall  3 , Dorit Nitzan  1 , Catherine Smallwood  1 , Richard G Pebody  1
Affiliations

Estimated number of deaths directly averted in people 60 years and older as a result of COVID-19 vaccination in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to November 2021

Margaux Mi Meslé et al. Euro Surveill. 2021 Nov.

Erratum in

  • Author's correction for Euro Surveill. 2021;26(47).
    Eurosurveillance editorial team. Eurosurveillance editorial team. Euro Surveill. 2022 May;27(21):220526c. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.21.220526c. Euro Surveill. 2022. PMID: 35620996 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
  • Author's correction for Euro Surveill. 2021;26(47).
    Eurosurveillance editorial team. Eurosurveillance editorial team. Euro Surveill. 2022 Jun;27(24):220616c. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.24.220616c. Euro Surveill. 2022. PMID: 35713022 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

Abstract

Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6-93%, largest when implementation was early.

Keywords: COVID-19; deaths averted; expected mortality; older age groups; vaccination coverage; vaccination programs.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Cumulative vaccination coverage in the population aged 60 years and older, by country, 33 countries in the WHO European Region, weeks 51/2020–45/2021
Figure 2
Figure 2
Complete vaccination coverage, by age group where available, in the population aged 60 years and older, by country, 33 countries in the WHO European Region, weeks 51/2020–45/2021
Figure 3
Figure 3
Observed and expected mortality, using the base vaccine effectiveness scenarioa, together with timing of vaccination in population aged 60 years and older, by country, 33 countries in the WHO European Region, weeks 51/2020–45/2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. World population prospects 2019. New York: United Nations. [Accessed: 10 Mar 2021]. Available from: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population

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