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. 2021 Nov 15;9(11):1328.
doi: 10.3390/vaccines9111328.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Vaccine on Daily Cases and Deaths Based on Global Vaccine Data

Zhiwei Li  1   2 , Xiangtong Liu  1   2 , Mengyang Liu  1   2 , Zhiyuan Wu  1   2 , Yue Liu  1   2 , Weiming Li  1   2 , Mengmeng Liu  1   2 , Xiaonan Wang  1   2 , Bo Gao  1   2 , Yanxia Luo  1   2 , Xia Li  3 , Lixin Tao  1   2 , Wei Wang  2   4 , Xiuhua Guo  1   2   4
Affiliations

The Effect of the COVID-19 Vaccine on Daily Cases and Deaths Based on Global Vaccine Data

Zhiwei Li et al. Vaccines (Basel). .

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global pandemic, has caused over 216 million cases and 4.50 million deaths as of 30 August 2021. Vaccines can be regarded as one of the most powerful weapons to eliminate the pandemic, but the impact of vaccines on daily COVID-19 cases and deaths by country is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between vaccines and daily newly confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in each country worldwide.

Methods: Daily data on firstly vaccinated people, fully vaccinated people, new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 were collected from 187 countries. First, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) to analyze the association between daily vaccinated people and daily new cases and deaths of COVID-19. Second, a random effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the global pooled results.

Results: In total, 187 countries and regions were included in the study. During the study period, 1,011,918,763 doses of vaccine were administered, 540,623,907 people received at least one dose of vaccine, and 230,501,824 people received two doses. For the relationship between vaccination and daily increasing cases of COVID-19, the results showed that daily increasing cases of COVID-19 would be reduced by 24.43% [95% CI: 18.89, 29.59] and 7.50% [95% CI: 6.18, 8.80] with 10,000 fully vaccinated people per day and at least one dose of vaccine, respectively. Daily increasing deaths of COVID-19 would be reduced by 13.32% [95% CI: 3.81, 21.89] and 2.02% [95% CI: 0.18, 4.16] with 10,000 fully vaccinated people per day and at least one dose of vaccine, respectively.

Conclusions: These findings showed that vaccination can effectively reduce the new cases and deaths of COVID-19, but vaccines are not distributed fairly worldwide. There is an urgent need to accelerate the speed of vaccination and promote its fair distribution across countries.

Keywords: COVID-19 cases; COVID-19 deaths; prediction; vaccination; worldwide.

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Conflict of interest statement

We declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Percentage change of daily cases and deaths with moving lag globally. (A) Percentage change of daily cases with daily 10,000 people fully vaccinated increasing; (B) Percentage change of daily cases with daily 10,000 new people vaccinated increasing; (C) Percentage change of daily deaths with daily 10,000 people fully vaccinated increasing; (D) Percentage change of daily deaths with daily 10,000 people vaccinated increasing.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Percentage change in daily cases and deaths with moving lag in the US. (A) Percentage change of daily cases with daily 10,000 people fully vaccinated increasing; (B) Percentage change of daily cases with daily 10,000 people vaccinated increasing; (C) Percentage change of daily deaths with daily 10,000 people fully vaccinated increasing; (D) Percentage change of daily deaths with daily 10,000 people vaccinated increasing.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The actual and predicted daily cases and deaths numbers with a moving lag globally. The predicted number was calculated by multiplying the actual number of daily cases by the PC value of the best lag. (A) The PC value and related 95% CI are −24.43 [−29.59, −18.89] with the best moving lag of 30. (B) The PC value and related 95% CI are −13.32 [−21.89, −3.81] with the best moving lag of 30.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The actual and predicted daily cases and deaths numbers in the US. The predicted number was calculated by multiplying the actual number of daily cases by the PC value of the best lag. (A) The PC value and related 95% CI are −4.84 [−5.02, −4.66] with the best moving lag of 30. (B) The PC value and related 95% CI are −12.31 [−13.53, −11.06] with the best moving lag of 30.
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