Promoting farsighted decisions via episodic future thinking: A meta-analysis

Abstract

Episodic future thinking (EFT) denotes our capacity to imagine prospective events. It has been suggested to promote farsighted decisions that entail a trade-off between short-term versus long-term gains. Here, we meta-analyze the evidence for the impact of EFT on such intertemporal choices that have monetary or health-relevant consequences. Across 174 effect sizes from 48 articles, a three-level model yielded a medium-sized effect of g = .44, 95% (CI) [.33, .55]. Notably, this analysis included a substantial number of unpublished experiments, and the effect remained significant following further adjustments for remaining publication bias. We exploited the observed heterogeneity to determine critical core components that moderate the impact of EFT. Specifically, the effect was stronger when the imagined events were positive, more vivid, and related to the delayed choice. We further obtained evidence for the contribution of the episodicity and future-orientedness of EFT. These results indicate that the impact of EFT cannot simply be accounted for by other modes of prospection (e.g., semantic future thinking). Of note, EFT had a greater impact in samples characterized by choice impulsivity (e.g., in obesity), suggesting that EFT can ameliorate maladaptive decision making. It may accordingly constitute a beneficial intervention for individuals who tend to make myopic decisions. Our analyses moreover indicated that the effect is unlikely to merely reflect demand characteristics. This meta-analysis highlights the potential of EFT in promoting long-term goals, a finding that extends from the laboratory to real-life decisions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).