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. 2022;36(9):2495-2501.
doi: 10.1007/s00477-021-02119-5. Epub 2021 Nov 26.

Mathematical modeling and estimation for next wave of COVID-19 in Poland

M K Arti  1 , Antoni Wilinski  2
Affiliations

Mathematical modeling and estimation for next wave of COVID-19 in Poland

M K Arti et al. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess. 2022.

Abstract

We investigate the problem of mathematical modeling of new corona virus (COVID-19) in Poland and tries to predict the upcoming wave. A Gaussian mixture model is proposed to characterize the COVID-19 disease and to predict a new / future wave of COVID-19. This prediction is very much needed to prepare for medical setup and continue with the upcoming program. Specifically, data related to the new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day are considered, and then we attempt to predict the data and statistical activity. A close match between actual data and analytical data by using the Gaussian mixture model shows that it is a suitable model to present new cases of COVID-19. In addition, it is thought that there are N waves of COVID-19 and that information for each future wave is also present in current and previous waves as well. Using this concept, predictions of a future wave can be made.

Keywords: COVID-19; Gaussian Mixture Model; Mathematical Modelling; Pandemics; Prediction.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interestAll authors have declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Analytical and actual plot of daily new cases of COVID-19 in Poland
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Plot of Gaussian wave
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Samples of Gaussian function given by (2)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Estimation of second and third COVID 19 wave
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Estimated fourth COVID-19 wave in Poland by considering the new cases from 03/04/2021 to 18/05/2021
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Estimated fourth COVID-19 wave in Poland by considering the new cases from 03/05/2021 to 07/06/2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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