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. 2021 Dec 7;118(49):e2108395118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2108395118.

How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Naomi R Waterlow  1 , Edwin van Leeuwen  2   3 , Nicholas G Davies  2 ; CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; Stefan Flasche  2 , Rosalind M Eggo  2
Affiliations

How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Naomi R Waterlow et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronaviruses; cross-protection; immunity.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Seasonal HCoV fit. (A) Model fit for seasonal HCoV by age. Black dots show reported HCoV cases; blue are 100 random samples from the posterior. (B) Posterior distributions for the duration of waning and the R0 of seasonal HCoV. (C) Mean annual attack rate for each age group from 100 samples of the posterior and the last 5 y of the fit.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
SARS-CoV-2 simulations. (A) Estimated R0 values for SARS-CoV-2 with different strengths of cross-protection. Points display the R0,C19, and lines show the range of Reff,C19 during the simulation. (B) Simulated age-specific serology rates for SARS-CoV-2 by the end of May 2020. Sources are Blood and Transplant donors (BT) (26) and the “What’s the STORY” study (STORY) (27).
Fig. 3.
Fig. 3.
The 10-y forward projections of seasonal HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. Red indicates SARS-CoV-2; blue indicates seasonal HCoVs. The dash-dotted vertical line indicates a change in axis scale due to the much larger SARS-CoV-2 pandemic wave, with that to the left of the dashed line marked by the left axis and that to the right marked by the right axis. Cross-protection strength and estimated SARS-CoV-2 R0 for the scenario are shown to the left of the figure. (A) Cross-protection from seasonal HCoV to SARS-CoV-2. (B) Bidirectional cross-protection. No control measures were included. Different line types show different samples from the posterior of the seasonal HCoV fit.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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