doi: 10.1056/NEJMc2103227.
Epub 2021 Dec 8.
Tracking the Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant in the United Kingdom
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Affiliations
- PMID: 34879193
- PMCID: PMC8693687
- DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc2103227
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Tracking the Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant in the United Kingdom
N Engl J Med.
.
No abstract available
Figures
Shown is the percentage of the population that was estimated to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 with S-gene target failure (used as a proxy for identification of the alpha variant on the basis of findings that a mutation in the variant affected S-gene polymerase-chain-reaction [PCR] assays) or with all three SARS-CoV-2 genes detected. Shading around the data curves indicates the 95% credible interval. Gray shading indicates the time periods when national restrictions or stay-at-home orders had been issued for the majority of the region. The black horizontal line indicates the approximate positivity rate at the start of the surge in infections in most regions that are shown. The vertical dashed lines show the estimated changes in trend from the iterative sequential regression algorithm fitted on the log scale starting at the time of study initiation on September 28, 2020. The absence of a vertical dashed line indicates that there was no evidence that the trend in infection rates had varied during the study period at a level of evidence of P<0.01 for triple-gene positivity and P<0.05 for S-gene target failure. Additional data regarding other positive results (generally with a low viral load) are provided in Fig. S3 in the Supplementary Appendix.
