Further research on accident rates in developing countries

Abstract

Earlier studies have shown that by using cross-sectional data for a group of developing countries, a significant relationship can be established between fatality rates and vehicle ownership levels. This paper updates relationships established in earlier years and identifies whether or not the slope of the regression line has continued to increase (and suggests that for the group of countries as a whole, there is a worsening in the safety situation). Similar relationships are also established for casualty rates. A detailed analysis is made of the relationship between fatality rates and parameters which describe, in part, the social, physical and economic characteristics of the developing countries. These include vehicle ownership, gross national product per capita, road density, vehicle density (per kilometre of road), population per physician and population per hospital bed. Again, comparisons are made with results obtained on earlier studies.