Growth and trend analysis of area, production and yield of rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh

Abstract

Bangladesh positioned as third rice producing country in the world. In Bangladesh, regional growth and trend in rice production determinants, disparities and similarities of rice production environments are highly desirable. In this study, the secondary time series data of area, production, and yield of rice from 1969-70 to 2019-20 were used to investigate the growth and trend by periodic, regional, seasonal and total basis. Quality checking, trend fitting, and classification analysis were performed by the Durbin-Watson test, Exponential growth model, Cochrane-Orcutt iteration method and clustering method. The production contribution to the national rice production of Boro rice is increasing at 0.97% per year, where Aus and Aman season production contribution significantly decreased by 0.48% and 0.49% per year. Among the regions, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Bogura, Jashore, Rajshahi, and Chattogram contributed the most i.e., 13.9%, 9.8%, 8.6%, 8.6%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, respectively. Nationally, the area of Aus and Aman had a decreasing trend with a -3.63% and -0.16% per year, respectively. But, in the recent period (Period III) increasing trend was observed in the most regions. The Boro cultivation area is increasing with a rate of 3.57% per year during 1984-85 to 2019-20. High yielding variety adoption rate has increased over the period and in recent years it has found 72% for Aus, 73.5% for Aman, and 98.4% for Boro season. As a result, the yield of the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons has been found increasing growth for most of the regions. We have identified different cluster regions in different seasons, indicating high dissimilarities among the rice production regions in Bangladesh. The region-wise actionable plan should be taken to rapidly adopt new varieties, management technologies and extension activities in lower contributor regions to improve productivity. Cluster-wise, policy strategies should be implemented for top and less contributor regions to ensure rice security of Bangladesh.

Fig 1. A conceptual framework of the study.

Shapefile republished from Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) database (http://maps.barcapps.gov.bd/index.php) under a CC BY license, with permission from Computer and GIS unit, BARC, original copyright 2014.

Fig 2

National area coverage (a) and production contribution (b) of Aus, Aman and Boro rice during 1969–70 to 2019–20.

Fig 3

Periodic production contribution of major rice-growing regions (a), and regional production contribution and area coverage of rice (b) during 1984–85 to 2019–20. Period I: 1984–85 to 1995–96, Period II: 1996–97 to 2007–08, Period III: 2008–09 to 2019–20.

Fig 4

Spatial (regional) and temporal (periodic) distribution of Aus (a), Aman (b), Boro (c) and total (d) rice cultivation area of Bangladesh. Period I: 1984–85 to 1995–96, Period II: 1996–97 to 2007–08, Period III: 2008–09 to 2019–20. Shapefile republished from Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) database (http://maps.barcapps.gov.bd/index.php) under a CC BY license, with permission from Computer and GIS unit, BARC, original copyright 2014.

Fig 5

Trend of Aus (a), Aman (b), Boro (c) and total (d) rice cultivation area in Bangladesh.

Fig 6

Spatial (regional) and temporal (periodic) distribution of Aus (a), Aman (b), Boro (c) and total (d) rice production (metric ton) of Bangladesh. Period I: 1984–85 to 1995–96, Period II: 1996–97 to 2007–08, Period III: 2008–09 to 2019–20. Shapefile republished from Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) database (http://maps.barcapps.gov.bd/index.php) under a CC BY license, with permission from Computer and GIS unit, BARC, original copyright 2014.

Fig 7

Trend of Aus (a), Aman (b), Boro (c) and total (d) rice production in Bangladesh.

Fig 8

Spatial (regional) and temporal (periodic) distribution of Aus (a), Aman (b), Boro (c) and total (d) rice yield (metric ton) of Bangladesh. Period I: 1984–85 to 1995–96, Period II: 1996–97 to 2007–08, Period III: 2008–09 to 2019–20. Shapefile republished from Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC) database (http://maps.barcapps.gov.bd/index.php) under a CC BY license, with permission from Computer and GIS unit, BARC, original copyright 2014.

Fig 9

Trend of Aus (a), Aman (b), Boro (c) and total (d) rice yield in Bangladesh.

Fig 10

Periodic and regional high yielding varieties adoption (%) of Aus (a), Aman (b), Boro (c) and total (d) rice season in Bangladesh. Period I: 1984–85 to 1995–96, Period II: 1996–97 to 2007–08, Period III: 2008–09 to 2019–20.

Fig 11. Seasonal and total high yielding varieties adoption (%) in Bangladesh.

Period I: 1984–85 to 1995–96, Period II: 1996–97 to 2007–08, Period III: 2008–09 to 2019–20.

Fig 12. Cluster analysis for grouping the regions based on high yielding variety (HYV) adoption (%) and production growth rate (%).