Media Exposure and the Risk of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Following a Mass traumatic Event: An In-silico Experiment

Abstract

Introduction: Following mass traumatic events, greater exposure to traditional media like television (TV) about the event is associated with higher burden of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, we know little about how social media exposure, combined with other media sources, shapes the population burden of PTSD following mass traumatic events. Materials and Methods: We built a microsimulation of 1,18,000 agents that was demographically comparable to the population of Parkland and Coral Springs, Florida that experienced the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in 2018. We parametrized the model using data from prior traumatic events and built an internal social network structure to facilitate the estimation of community PTSD prevalence following exposure to TV and social media coverage of the shooting. Results: Overall, PTSD prevalence in the community due to exposure to TV coverage of the shooting was 3.1%. Shifting the whole population's hours of TV watching to the lower half of the population distribution decreased PTSD prevalence to 1.3% while increasing TV watching to the upper half of the distribution increased the prevalence to 3.5%. Casual (i.e., viewing posts) social media use in addition to exposure to TV coverage increased PTSD prevalence to 3.4%; overall prevalence increased to 5.3% when agents shared videos related to the shooting on social media. Conclusion: This microsimulation shows that availability and exposure to media coverage of mass traumatic events, particularly as social media becomes more ubiquitous, has the potential to increase community PTSD prevalence following these events. Future research could fruitfully examine the mechanisms that might explain these associations and potential interventions that can mitigate the role of media in shaping the mental health of populations following traumatic events.

Keywords: PTSD—post-traumatic stress disorder; mass shooting; mass traumatic events; media exposure; mental health; social media.

Figure 1

Exposure to television coverage of Parkland mass shooting and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence. Baseline included a distribution of 11.2% agents watching <4 h, 13.1% watching between 4–7 h, 10.8% watching between 8–11 h, and 64.9% watching 12 h or more. Scenario 1: agents watched television <4 h per day. Scenario 2: all agent preferences were shifted to the lower half of population television watching distribution (i.e., all agents either watched 4 or less h or 4–7 h of television coverage). Scenario 3: all agent preferences were shifted to the upper half of population television watching distribution (i.e., all agents ether watched 8–11 h 12 or more hours of television coverage).

Figure 2

Exposure to television and social media coverage of the Parkland mass shooting and probable post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence. Casual social media use refers to viewing posts.