Contemporary Clinical and Coronary Anatomic Risk Model for 30-Day Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Abstract

Background: Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures are increasing in clinical and anatomic complexity, likely increasing the calculated risk of mortality. There is need for a real-time risk prediction tool that includes clinical and coronary anatomic information that is integrated into the electronic medical record system.

Methods: We assessed 70 503 PCIs performed in 73 Veterans Affairs hospitals from 2008 to 2019. We used regression and machine-learning strategies to develop a prediction model for 30-day mortality following PCI. We assessed model performance with and without inclusion of the Veterans Affairs SYNTAX score (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery), an assessment of anatomic complexity. Finally, the discriminatory ability of the Veterans Affairs model was compared with the CathPCI mortality model.

Results: The overall 30-day morality rate was 1.7%. The final model included 14 variables. Presentation status (salvage, emergent, urgent), ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, age, congestive heart failure, prior valve disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic lung disease, atrial fibrillation, elevated international normalized ratio, and the Veterans Affairs SYNTAX score were all associated with increased risk of death, while increasing body mass index, hemoglobin level, and prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with lower risk of death. C-index for the development cohort was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.92-0.94) and for the 2019 validation cohort and the site validation cohort was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.83-0.92) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83-0.89), respectively. The positive likelihood ratio of predicting a mortality event in the top decile was 2.87% more accurate than the CathPCI mortality model. Inclusion of anatomic information in the model resulted in significant improvement in model performance (likelihood ratio test P<0.01).

Conclusions: This contemporary risk model accurately predicts 30-day post-PCI mortality using a combination of clinical and anatomic variables. This can be immediately implemented into clinical practice to promote personalized informed consent discussions and appropriate preparation for high-risk PCI cases.

Keywords: mortality; percutaneous coronary intervention; risk prediction.