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Review
. 2021 Dec;6(12):e007518.
doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007518.

Tracking the uptake and trajectory of COVID-19 vaccination coverage in 15 West African countries: an interim analysis

Muhammed Olanrewaju Afolabi  1 , Oghenebrume Wariri  2   3 , Yauba Saidu  4   5 , Akaninyene Otu  6   7 , Semeeh Akinwale Omoleke  8 , Bassey Ebenso  9 , Adekola Adebiyi  10 , Michael Ooko  11 , Bright Opoku Ahinkorah  12 , Edward Kwabena Ameyaw  12 , Abdul-Aziz Seidu  13   14 , Emmanuel Agogo  15 , Terna Nomhwange  16 , Kolawole Salami  17 , Nuredin Ibrahim Mohammed  2   11 , Sanni Yaya  18   19
Affiliations
Review

Tracking the uptake and trajectory of COVID-19 vaccination coverage in 15 West African countries: an interim analysis

Muhammed Olanrewaju Afolabi et al. BMJ Glob Health. 2021 Dec.

Abstract

The African Union Bureau of Heads of State and Government endorsed the COVID-19 Vaccine Development and Access Strategy to vaccinate at least 60% of each country's population with a safe and efficacious vaccine by 2022, to achieve the population-level immunity needed to bring the pandemic under control. Using publicly available, country-level population estimates and COVID-19 vaccination data, we provide unique insights into the uptake trends of COVID-19 vaccinations in the 15 countries that comprise the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS). Based on the vaccination rates in the ECOWAS region after three months of commencing COVID-19 vaccinations, we provide a projection of the trajectory and speed of vaccination needed to achieve a COVID-19 vaccination coverage rate of at least 60% of the total ECOWAS population. After three months of the deployment of COVID-19 vaccines across the ECOWAS countries, only 0.27% of the region's total population had been fully vaccinated. If ECOWAS countries follow this trajectory, the sub-region will have less than 1.6% of the total population fully vaccinated after 18 months of vaccine deployment. Our projection shows that to achieve a COVID-19 vaccination coverage of at least 60% of the total population in the ECOWAS sub-region after 9, 12 and 18 months of vaccine deployment; the speed of vaccination must be increased to 10, 7 and 4 times the current trajectory, respectively. West African governments must deploy contextually relevant and culturally acceptable strategies for COVID-19 vaccine procurements, distributions and implementations in order to achieve reasonable coverage and save lives, sooner rather than later.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; public health; vaccines.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(A) Timelines of COVID-19 vaccine arrivals and deployments in I5 ECOWAS countries. (B) Types of COVID-19 vaccines received in the I5 ECOWAS countries during the first phase of shipment. ECOWAS, Economic Community of West Africa States.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Cartographic representations of the COVID-19 vaccination coverage in 15 ECOWAS countries showing the proportion of people (A) who received at least one dose and (B) who received two (full) doses of the vaccine, 3 months after deployment. ECOWAS, Economic Community of West Africa States.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The projected trajectory to achieve full vaccination in 50%, 60% and 70% of the population after 9, 12 and 18 months of vaccine deployment in west Africa.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The projected trajectory to achieve full vaccination in 50%, 60%, and 70% of the population after 9, 12 and 18 months of vaccine deployment in each of the 15 ECOWAS member states. ECOWAS, Economic Community of West Africa States.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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