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. 2022 Feb;45(3):1632-1639.
doi: 10.1002/mma.7878. Epub 2021 Oct 12.

R 0 estimation for COVID-19 pandemic through exponential fit

Zheng Mingliang  1 , Theodore E Simos  2   3   4   5   6 , Charalampos Tsitouras  7
Affiliations

R 0 estimation for COVID-19 pandemic through exponential fit

Zheng Mingliang et al. Math Methods Appl Sci. 2022 Feb.

Abstract

We provide an easy and accurate method for approximating the reproduction number R 0 defined in an SIR epidemic model. At first, we present a formula extracting the exact R 0 in case of constant rates of infection and recovery assumed in an SIR model. Then, we proceed proposing an exponential fitting to various data taken from the real-world epidemics. Certain applications for current COVID outbreak are considered, and figures describing the fluctuation of R 0 in various countries are given.

Keywords: COVID‐19 outbreak; SIR epidemic model; exponential fitting; initial value problem.

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Figures

FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
Brazil: R 0 estimation between January 1, 2021 until April 4, 2021
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 2
Canada: R 0 estimation between January 1, 2021 until April 4, 2021
FIGURE 3
FIGURE 3
Germany: R 0 estimation between January 1, 2021 until April 4, 2021
FIGURE 4
FIGURE 4
Israel: R 0 estimation between January 1, 2021 until April 4, 2021
FIGURE 5
FIGURE 5
Italy: R 0 estimation between January 1, 2021 until April 4, 2021
FIGURE 6
FIGURE 6
Russia: R 0 estimation between January 1, 2021 until April 4, 2021
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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