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[Preprint]. 2021 Dec 9:2021.12.08.21267496.
doi: 10.1101/2021.12.08.21267496.

Vaccinating Children Against COVID-19 is Essential Prior to the Removal of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

Erik Rosenstrom  1 , Jessica Mele  1 , Julie Ivy  1 , Maria Mayorga  1 , Mehul Patel  2 , Kristen Hassmiller Lich  3 , Paul Delamater  4 , Raymond Smith  5 , Julie L Swann  1
Affiliations

Vaccinating Children Against COVID-19 is Essential Prior to the Removal of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

Erik Rosenstrom et al. medRxiv. .

Update in

Abstract

Objectivess: To evaluate the joint impact of childhood vaccination rates and masking policies, in schools and workplaces, on community transmission and severe outcomes due to COVID-19.

Study design: We utilized a stochastic, agent-based simulation of North Carolina, to evaluate the impact of 24 health policy decisions on overall incidence of disease, COVID-19 related hospitalization, and mortality from July 1, 2021-July 1, 2023.

Results: Universal mask removal in schools in January 2022 could lead to a 38.1-47%, 27.6-36.2%, and 15.9-19.7% increase in cumulative infections for ages 5-9, 10-19, and the total population, respectively, depending on the rate of vaccination of children relative to the adult population. Additionally, without increased vaccination uptake in the adult population, a 25% increase in child vaccination uptake from 50% to 75% uptake and from 75% to 100% uptake relative to the adult population, leads to a 22% and 18% or 28% and 33% decrease in peak hospitalizations in 2022 across scenarios when masks are removed either January 1st or March 8th 2022, respectively. Increasing vaccination uptake for the entire eligible population can reduce peak hospitalizations in 2022 by an average of 89% and 92% across all masking scenarios compared to the scenarios where no children are vaccinated.

Conclusions: High vaccination uptake among both children and adults is necessary to mitigate the increase in infections from mask removal in schools and workplaces.

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Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:
County level proportion of total population fully vaccinated over time. The values presented correspond to simulation values, where the solid lines reflect the mean vaccine uptake. The dashed lines correspond to the minimum and maximum vaccine uptake across the 100 counties of North Carolina, and the gray shaded area represents the corresponding range.
Figure 2A,B (i)-(iv):
Figure 2A,B (i)-(iv):
Cumulative infections per 100,000 population by age group as a function of vaccination status. Figure 2A shows universal mask removal scenarios compared with masks remaining, and Figure 2B shows incremental mask removal compared with masks remaining.
Figure 3A,B:
Figure 3A,B:
Number of individuals currently hospitalized as a function of vaccine status. Figure 3A shows universal mask removal scenarios compared with masks remaining, and Figure 3B shows incremental removal compared with masks remaining. The dashed red line indicates the greatest historical number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in North Carolina to date (November 2021), which occurred in January 2021.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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    1. CDC. CDC Recommends Pediatric COVID-19 Vaccine for Children 5 to 11 Years. Released November 2, 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1102-PediatricCOVID-19Vaccine.h...
    1. FDA. Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee October 26, 2021 Meeting Announcement. Published October 26, 2021. Accessed October 28, 2021. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vacc...
    1. NC Department of Health and Human Services, StrongSchoolsNC Public Health Toolkit (K-12) Frequently Asked Questions. Published October 25, 2021. Accessed October 28, 2021. https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/media/401/download?attachment
    1. CDC. Guidance for COVID-19 Prevention in K-12 Schools. Updated November 5, 2021. Accessed November 6, 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/k-...

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